Time For The Long Await Selloff?

31 Ağu 2023

IF Intermediate wave 2 finally ended, this will serve as the current preliminary analysis for tracking Intermediate wave 3 down. Confirmation of Intermediate wave 2 ending will take at least 3 more days, so this analysis is subject to change. Based on the most specific historical models that are relationally relevant to an Intermediate wave 3, the quartile movement extensions serving as checkpoints and likely bottom (pink levels on chart) for Intermediate wave 3 are 165.83%, 181.41%, and 227.27%. The models cannot agree on a specific duration in hours, however, there are pockets of agreement with the strongest at 168-175 hours, secondary is 185-192, third is 149-156 hours. The next set of data is slightly broader and places the quartile movement extensions (light blue levels) at 147.09%, 165.83%, and 306.68%. Strongest model agreement for duration is at 70 hours (which was the length of Intermediate wave 2), secondary is 112 (length of Intermediate wave 1) and 426 hours while third model agreement is at 155, 174, and 199 hours. The broader set of historical data has extension quartiles (yellow levels) at 141.46%, 176.435%, and the third quartile remains at 306.68%. Strongest model agreement for duration is 70 and 426 hours (which are unlikely for wave 3) with secondaries at 112, 142, and 224 (double length of wave 1). Third most agreement is at 168, 174, and 213 hours.
Preliminary forecast is the bottom around 174 hours which is around October 6th. The bottom could be between 4114-4156, but likely below 4140. The levels in this assessment will not change but the forecasts for the bottom will be updated in future forecasts as each of the 5 waves near completion. Intermediate wave 4 should begin more upward movement after Intermediate wave 3 has completed. September looks like a selloff, but October should claw back 20-50% of the losses.