SPX - Upside was predictable and continues to be. How long?

Let me take you on a journey through my mind. When we tested 3775, I had a high degree of confidence that we were reaching a bottom. We did go a little lower but my key indicators were suggesting a bottom may be in. That shift in bias ended up being correct. Going into next week, it is possible we see a little push up at the open on Tuesday to fill the gap which I expect will reject on the first attempt.

On the first rejection, a nice little zig-zag is likely to appear which would take us back to 3800. This likely will be seen by many as an inverted head and shoulders pattern which would indicate a move back up to 4000.

Personally, for me, that would be a bit higher than I'm expecting but I will be watching for signs of exhaustion going into EOY.

I will be looking at volume on ES and keeping an eye on key SPX stocks, especially AAPL and TSLA which aren't looking great at the moment. 129 on AAPL and 130 on TSLA are pretty important at the moment. We could see that bounce into the end of next week and from there, we will need to evaluate what happens next.

Also, keep an eye on the 200 Weekly Exponential Moving Average right around 3700. The 200 simple is at 3665 and the 300 simple is at 3320. All these areas should provide good support if we see downside going into 2023 as I expect we probably will.