Last 7 Presidential Cycles
The next year, 2023, represent the third US presidential year. This analysis compares the last 7 presidential cycles with:
- SPX - SP500 Index
- USINTR - US Interest Rate
- SAHMREC - The recession indicator
So, we can conclude that most of the 3rd(Pre Election) year from the last 7 Presidential cycles were bullish where:
- there was no recession, even though 2023 data strongly suggest that a recession is iminent
- the FED started pivoting the interest rate
- the SPX increased between 10-40%
- SPX - SP500 Index
- USINTR - US Interest Rate
- SAHMREC - The recession indicator
So, we can conclude that most of the 3rd(Pre Election) year from the last 7 Presidential cycles were bullish where:
- there was no recession, even though 2023 data strongly suggest that a recession is iminent
- the FED started pivoting the interest rate
- the SPX increased between 10-40%
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