I believe that SPX has already broke out of its respective downward channel, and now is attempting to retest the upper bound of the channel it broke out from.
Volatility index plotted below has already broke downwards of its respective trend line, and with breakouts, we often see a retests of levels it broke out of. VIX near 20 may in fact indicate a short term spike or reversal may be in place for the underlying index (SPX), yet I think this spike will be a representation of a retest in SPX 4200 levels.
Seeing 2008 chart comparisons is nonsense to me and seems like its just fear mongering and attention seeking, are they similar? yes absolutely, but circumstances, sentiment, and psychology are different. We have 200D moving average support still on a daily as well. Extreme bearish sentiment can sometimes indicate a bullish signal by taking a contrarian viewpoint.
Often when we see high put volume in relation to calls, we see rallys, and vice versa.
Wave theory generally shows wave 4 (corrective wave within motive wave) to retrace 0.23%-0.38% of wave 3, which would find SPX support near 4175-4200 which is also in line with the idea of a retest of the channel top.
I believe if the 4200 level does not hold, we will continue into the downward channel, but for now I think a slight pullback to retest channel top is likely, but a continuation of a rally after a retest is also another bullish case scenario and possibility.
Volatility index plotted below has already broke downwards of its respective trend line, and with breakouts, we often see a retests of levels it broke out of. VIX near 20 may in fact indicate a short term spike or reversal may be in place for the underlying index (SPX), yet I think this spike will be a representation of a retest in SPX 4200 levels.
Seeing 2008 chart comparisons is nonsense to me and seems like its just fear mongering and attention seeking, are they similar? yes absolutely, but circumstances, sentiment, and psychology are different. We have 200D moving average support still on a daily as well. Extreme bearish sentiment can sometimes indicate a bullish signal by taking a contrarian viewpoint.
Often when we see high put volume in relation to calls, we see rallys, and vice versa.
Wave theory generally shows wave 4 (corrective wave within motive wave) to retrace 0.23%-0.38% of wave 3, which would find SPX support near 4175-4200 which is also in line with the idea of a retest of the channel top.
I believe if the 4200 level does not hold, we will continue into the downward channel, but for now I think a slight pullback to retest channel top is likely, but a continuation of a rally after a retest is also another bullish case scenario and possibility.
