S&P 500 - Why everyone is probably wrong.

2 Mar 2023

Popular YouTube channels, financial media, everyone is talking about the great big crash of 2023 to come.

Everyone is probably wrong. Why? The chart stupid.

The recent breakout of resistance is seen by many as a bull trap. Maybe. I see a backtest of past resistance and price action landing on the golden ratio. There’s something else, however. The Life cross. A life cross is defined as:

1) The 50-day SMA crossing up the 200-day SMA

AND

2) Price action above the 200-day SMA.

But WW this cross is a fake out! There’s no evidence to support that. Have studied the last 60 years of life crosses on the index. Do you know how many printed a false signal? 0. Nadda. Not one.

Ww



The last 20 years of life crosses..

July 8th, 2020


April 1st 2019


April 26th, 2016


February 1st, 2012


October 22nd, 2010


June 20th, 2009


September 12th 2006


November 10th, 2004


May 16th, 2003

8 Mar 2023

Not

Price action is about to surprise all. Expect you lucky followers...

The next move is to the 4300 area following the successful backtest and wedge breakout.

24 Nis 2023

İşlem aktif

Everyone is still wrong... fantastic.

No need for the bunting just yet, only 5% gain thus far. However something that has not happened since June 20th, 2020 following a buy signal..

** confirmed GRM support **

Before you ask, this is a confirmation of trend reversal, the market is printing higher lows. This is a fact, not my opinion.

There’s something else.. a strong reason for the bullish forecast is also the strong reason for the bearish case against gold. That is the Gold/SPX500 ratio. When this ratio is printing strong bullish divergence you get out of stocks and long gold. Vice versa when bearish divergence prints. Don’t take my word for it, look left, throughout history this one simple fact has been irrefutable.

On the 5-day chart below a strong bearish divergence on the ratio has confirmed. What does this mean? Gold price action to fall fall and fall while the stock market prints a new higher high.

5-day

24 May 2023

Not

4090, if you can get it take it.

26 May 2023

Not

Despite the best effort from the bears price action is up 6%.

Now a word of caution if you're a baby bear, you do not want to see a close of 4220 before the weekend. There is a lot of Put contracts that will hurt at this level with a high probability of producing a short squeeze.

If you're a brave bull, you don't want to see a close below 4210. This will print a double top before the weekend close, bearish indeed.

Util then, schönes Wochenende.

Ww

1 Haz 2023

İşlem aktif

10 confirmations of GRM support since May 20th. Expecting a correction to lower lows? Not going to happen.

14 Haz 2023

Not

The 4300 resistance was sliced through like it did not exist. 4500 is the next significant resistance. Currently up 10% from posting or about 400 points. The baby bears don’t know what’s going on, just as before.

19 Tem 2023

Not

There goes 4500. If 4600 does not slow the rally it it is off to 4780.

The baby bears are getting squeezed into bear juice.

27 Tem 2023

Not

Clear resistance at 4600.

Can you where support is?

30 Ağu 2023

İşlem aktif

Support confirmed on the August 2022 resistance, what an awesome signal. No possibility to be bearish now.

8 Kas 2024

İşlem elle kapatılmış

Now up 50% since the life cross.

Congratulations to all who ignore the noise and the naysayers.
Now the market top is not far away... Already I'm reading about "the new bull market" and monster gains ahead. The truth is very different.