S&P500: Broke its 1W MA50 after 17 months. Recovery or collapse?

The S&P500 turned oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 29.430, MACD = -85.410, ADX = 51.223) as it breached today its 1W MA50 for the first time since the week of October 30th 2023, i.e. almost 1.5 year. That was a week of a very aggressive recovery after a Channel Up correction, with the bullish sequence reaching 9 straight green weeks. With the 1D RSI ovesold and the 1W RSI almost on the 39.15 Support, which was the low of the October 23rd 2023 1W candle, the index couldn't have been technically on a better long term buy spot.

Needless to say, the market can't rise if the fundamentals are against it and right now the geopolitical tensions and more importantly the trade war isn't helping. If the index does find a positive catalyst to take advantage of, then the bullish technicals of the Channel Up bottom will prevail, and this week's candle may resemble the Max Pain 1W candle under the 1W MA50 of October 23rd 2023. Even if it doesn't rise as high as the 2.382 Fibonacci extension of that rally, we would expect in that instance a 2.0 Fib extension rally like the post August 2024 bullish wave (TP = 6,700). Failure to find support this week though, will most likely result in further collapse (even more aggressively so) to the 1W MA100.


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