Spreads never lie

The 2-year sell and 10-year buy spread has returned to levels above 0, stabilizing around the 0.15 range.

Historically, since 1966, a return of this spread from the zone below 0 has inevitably led to either long-term or short-term crises.

In this case as well, we have all the necessary preconditions for at least short-term shocks in the securities market, despite the fact that the labor market remains at an acceptable 4.2%, inflation continues to stay above the Fed's target level, and both the manufacturing and services sectors are in a growth cycle.

As the U.S. presidential elections approach, particularly following the success of the Democrats, the SP500 could lose 15-20% in just a few months.

The forecasts from global banks are interesting, with JP Morgan's prediction standing out significantly. It is the only global bank expecting a roughly 20% drop in the benchmark index.