- The S&P 500 is nearing a strong resistance at 2900/45 where everything is possible from consolidation phase to profit taking or 7-10% correction.
- Profit taking is possible (FOMC meeting 1 May, US earnings season, ECB meeting 6 June, etc). The risk is that global central banks’ policy U-turn during 2Q19 is largely priced in and markets unlikely to get more softer tone or stimulus from world CBs in nearest futures.
- Back in 2016. With some parallels to 2016 when the Fed also had to be cautious the S&P500 can follow a similar pattern as three years ago. Under such scenario the S&P 500 can set local highs in April and spend half a year consolidating not far from major resistance at 2900-2945
- Although both China and the US are talking up the chances of a possible trade deal, trade tensions remain significant risk for US equities. Besides there are some “landmines” in the implementation and enforcement of a trade deal (Trade war 2.0), uncertainty regarding whether existing tariffs will be rolled back and so on. And with Bloomberg’s “EU-U.S. Trade War Escalates Over Disputed Aviation Subsidies”, on balance, trade war risks remain skewed to the upside.
- Profit taking is possible (FOMC meeting 1 May, US earnings season, ECB meeting 6 June, etc). The risk is that global central banks’ policy U-turn during 2Q19 is largely priced in and markets unlikely to get more softer tone or stimulus from world CBs in nearest futures.
- Back in 2016. With some parallels to 2016 when the Fed also had to be cautious the S&P500 can follow a similar pattern as three years ago. Under such scenario the S&P 500 can set local highs in April and spend half a year consolidating not far from major resistance at 2900-2945
- Although both China and the US are talking up the chances of a possible trade deal, trade tensions remain significant risk for US equities. Besides there are some “landmines” in the implementation and enforcement of a trade deal (Trade war 2.0), uncertainty regarding whether existing tariffs will be rolled back and so on. And with Bloomberg’s “EU-U.S. Trade War Escalates Over Disputed Aviation Subsidies”, on balance, trade war risks remain skewed to the upside.
İşlem kapandı: hedefe ulaştı
There can be overshoot and potential slide of S&P 500 towards support at 2700 or even 2665 (10% correction from record high at 2960) but risky assets can also get some support from Fed meeting on June 19 or G20 Summit on June 28-29.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.