S&P 500 (SPX)/Producer Price Index (PPIACO) Leading Market Lower
Güncellendi
Today, I wanted to share a chart setup that was inspired by Badcharts that highlights the ratio of S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) correlation — which, as Badcharts recently highlighted on a Twitter space led (or very closely correlated) with the downturn in the S&P 500 (SPX SPY ES1!) starting in late 21’.
In addition to this, I wanted to layer on the S&P 500 (SPX), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), & U.S. Recessions as these (3) inputs seem to have a very intersting correlation to the relative predictive timing of previous recessionary periods — both in 01’ & 08’.
I’ve also added the “MACD Indicator” (bottom indicator) & the “Distance from Moving Average” (first indicator), using the SMA 144 & 200 Bar Lookback as these help highlight overbought/oversold conditions in the ratio of S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) — which could help you identify tactical market positioning opportunities (long or short).
Here is the chart key for this setup: 📊🔑
1990 - 2023 Overview (Monthly) 📊
*2001 Recession* (Monthly & Weekly) 📊
*NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 5 bars (months)*
*2008 Recession* (Weekly & Daily) 📊
*NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 5 bars (months)*
2023 Recession? (Weekly & Daily) 📊
*NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 7 bars (months), but no “technical recession”…*
What are your initial thoughts & observations from this chart setup? Let me know in the comments below! 👇🏼
In addition to this, I wanted to layer on the S&P 500 (SPX), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), & U.S. Recessions as these (3) inputs seem to have a very intersting correlation to the relative predictive timing of previous recessionary periods — both in 01’ & 08’.
I’ve also added the “MACD Indicator” (bottom indicator) & the “Distance from Moving Average” (first indicator), using the SMA 144 & 200 Bar Lookback as these help highlight overbought/oversold conditions in the ratio of S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) — which could help you identify tactical market positioning opportunities (long or short).
Here is the chart key for this setup: 📊🔑
- Black/White Bars = S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO)
- Blue Line = SPX (SPY ES1!)
- Orange Line = Unemployment (UNRATE)
- Vertical Black Dotted Line = Pre-Recession Ratio Peak (SPX/PPIACO)
- Vertical Orange Dotted Line = Pre-Recession Unemployment Trough (UNRATE)
- Vertical Blue Dotted Line = Pre-Recession S&P 500 Peak (SPX)
1990 - 2023 Overview (Monthly) 📊
*2001 Recession* (Monthly & Weekly) 📊
*NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 5 bars (months)*
- Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = Mar. 00’
- Trough (UNRATE) = Apr. 00’
- Peak (SPX) = Aug. 00’
*2008 Recession* (Weekly & Daily) 📊
*NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 5 bars (months)*
- Trough (UNRATE) = May 07’
- Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = June 07’
- Peak (SPX) = Oct. 07’
2023 Recession? (Weekly & Daily) 📊
*NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 7 bars (months), but no “technical recession”…*
- Peak (SPX) = Dec. 21’
- Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = Jan. 00’
- Trough (UNRATE) = July 22’
What are your initial thoughts & observations from this chart setup? Let me know in the comments below! 👇🏼
Not
If you would like a copy of this chart template, you can copy that using this link: 📊tradingview.com/chart/Nk1LpnuE/
To Wealth & Prosperity,
Kyle
Kyle
İlgili yayınlar
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.