Topping process setting for a larger bear market. A second wave of selling to form a larger bear market, followed by a second recession. I believe the S&P 500 will make a new high after the breakout of the bullish falling wedge. This looks very similar to the topping process in Jan and Feb earlier this year.
Investors' expectations in the aftermath of the pandemic are way too high. The stock market will likely have another wave (a 2nd wave) of selling once it makes a new high above the Sept 2nd peak and moves above 3600 to form a topping process that should usher in the next longer term bear market. My target is 3650 to 3675 over the next 3 to 4 weeks. A larger structural bear market is likely forming, with tends to be longer in duration. The next wave of selling will be prompted by the B.I.G.s The Big Institutional Guns and the wealthy. They should sell into the rally and that will create a topping process.
The economic fallout from the pandemic will carry over into 2021. The postponement of foreclosures, bankruptcies, and evictions will occur in 2021. Researchers are saying that evictions are expected to be in the millions. Foreclosures will put pressure on the housing market as lenders will likely increase lending restrictions. The housing market and the stock market tend to move in tandem.
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