NO CAUSE FOR ALARM WHATSOEVER
Today, Solana revealed where we are within our wave structure off the February 24th Bottom.
Let me explain.
If our wave 3 was going to extend into the next Fib level (2.0 at $155.2225 on the chart) we would have stayed above the 1.236 Fib Level since wave 3 extended past the traditional Fib Level of 1.618 for wave 3 tops. It didn't so we must assume the count is off by one degree. The attached chart reflects this adjustment.
Nonetheless, our bottoming structure remains impulsive and very typical with NO CAUSE FOR ALARM WHATSOEVER.
So what's next?
Good News:
It looks like our wave 4 may have ended today, but only a conclusive break back over $122 and then $130 will conclude this. This break over $122 should be done in a micro 5 wave structure with a 3 wave decline and then an explosive rally that breaches $130 (our micro 3rd wave). So patience as we bang around down here to find our footing. One very encouraging sign in the Hidden Bullish Divergence in the MACD.
Hidden Bullish/Bearish Divergence - If the trend is up, then we'll look for bullish hidden divergence, which means the MACD line will print a lower low while the price prints a higher low. If the trend is down, then look for bearish hidden divergence, where the MACD line prints a higher high, but the price prints a lower high.
I mean the attached hourly chart shows we're coiled and ready to launch into outer space. If this HBD triggers, its what we need to get to $155-$160. Yellow Count is updated as my Primary Count as it previously was my Alternative Count.
Bad News: (New Alt Count)
There's always different opinions and alternative analysis so an Alternative Count vs. a Primary Count is always a good trading strategy. Just re-read above. Prior to this weekend I was very very bullish but I maintained an alternative EW count and that played out. So to explain, an alternative count is in the event certain price levels get breached that violate some of the principles of Elliot Wave Theory. When this occurs, the alternative EW count starts to look more and more plausible until its the higher likely scenario.
New Alt Count has us in a wave iv of V of C of 2 and new lows are coming. What needs to happen to make the alt count become more likely? First we can trade down to $109.83 and bounce from there and I would have no issue with maintaining the primary count. But a violation of the 1.0 extension is my first sign the party is over. The nail in the coffin becomes a breach of $107. Some of you may say, well a leading diagonal has overlap of each motive wave. Yes you are correct. However, I trade on probabilities of higher likelihood. An LD is in my opinion a very low probability structure.
For now, bask in the fact that we had a short term retrace from an almost 60% move in the last 45 days and we're still not done. Would I buy more here? I'm not. But thats not to say you shouldn't. The upside from here is $40 or more. The downside (if the alt count comes to fruition is about $60) but that is low probability as of right now. However I did recommend to my followers I plan to lighten up a significant portion of my Solana holdings into the $155-$160 area. NOT ALL, but a DECENT SHARE.
Best to all.
Chris
Let me explain.
If our wave 3 was going to extend into the next Fib level (2.0 at $155.2225 on the chart) we would have stayed above the 1.236 Fib Level since wave 3 extended past the traditional Fib Level of 1.618 for wave 3 tops. It didn't so we must assume the count is off by one degree. The attached chart reflects this adjustment.
Nonetheless, our bottoming structure remains impulsive and very typical with NO CAUSE FOR ALARM WHATSOEVER.
So what's next?
Good News:
It looks like our wave 4 may have ended today, but only a conclusive break back over $122 and then $130 will conclude this. This break over $122 should be done in a micro 5 wave structure with a 3 wave decline and then an explosive rally that breaches $130 (our micro 3rd wave). So patience as we bang around down here to find our footing. One very encouraging sign in the Hidden Bullish Divergence in the MACD.
Hidden Bullish/Bearish Divergence - If the trend is up, then we'll look for bullish hidden divergence, which means the MACD line will print a lower low while the price prints a higher low. If the trend is down, then look for bearish hidden divergence, where the MACD line prints a higher high, but the price prints a lower high.
I mean the attached hourly chart shows we're coiled and ready to launch into outer space. If this HBD triggers, its what we need to get to $155-$160. Yellow Count is updated as my Primary Count as it previously was my Alternative Count.
Bad News: (New Alt Count)
There's always different opinions and alternative analysis so an Alternative Count vs. a Primary Count is always a good trading strategy. Just re-read above. Prior to this weekend I was very very bullish but I maintained an alternative EW count and that played out. So to explain, an alternative count is in the event certain price levels get breached that violate some of the principles of Elliot Wave Theory. When this occurs, the alternative EW count starts to look more and more plausible until its the higher likely scenario.
New Alt Count has us in a wave iv of V of C of 2 and new lows are coming. What needs to happen to make the alt count become more likely? First we can trade down to $109.83 and bounce from there and I would have no issue with maintaining the primary count. But a violation of the 1.0 extension is my first sign the party is over. The nail in the coffin becomes a breach of $107. Some of you may say, well a leading diagonal has overlap of each motive wave. Yes you are correct. However, I trade on probabilities of higher likelihood. An LD is in my opinion a very low probability structure.
For now, bask in the fact that we had a short term retrace from an almost 60% move in the last 45 days and we're still not done. Would I buy more here? I'm not. But thats not to say you shouldn't. The upside from here is $40 or more. The downside (if the alt count comes to fruition is about $60) but that is low probability as of right now. However I did recommend to my followers I plan to lighten up a significant portion of my Solana holdings into the $155-$160 area. NOT ALL, but a DECENT SHARE.
Best to all.
Chris
Feragatname
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