4/30/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
SNAP
I'm in for a small 1% sub $8
- the metric that matters most to me is growing DAU and at this stage, there's visibility to 1 bn DAUs. very few co's nevermind of this size, have that scale
- we know openAI wants to build social. we know Google desperately needs social. etc. etc. and let's look a the metric that's perhaps the only one that puts this all into perspective: value per DAU. pre-mkt sub $8/shr implies nearly $16/DAU.
- yes. i get the massive SBC. it's what's alway made me hold my nose. yes i get the Evan votes my shares discount. but let's get real here, they're not *actually* burning cash. revenue growth is there b/c it follows DAUs. and mgns only continue to improve given the nature of this data-intensive product. oh - and in a world where AI eats everything digital, the only survivors (IMVHO) are ones with some form of human network effect. imagine trying to re-create this size/ scale product with this many users. possible. but for $16/DAU and technically profitable on a cash basis? good f'n luck.
- at this stage, i think we've entered extreme value. i'd love to own a lot more if/as we take out recent range lows in the low $7s, ideally mid $6s. but i'm not going to be overly greedy here and like the reflexivity option to the upside vs. extreme downside case all-in.
lmk if i've missed anything.
V
SNAPI'm in for a small 1% sub $8
- the metric that matters most to me is growing DAU and at this stage, there's visibility to 1 bn DAUs. very few co's nevermind of this size, have that scale
- we know openAI wants to build social. we know Google desperately needs social. etc. etc. and let's look a the metric that's perhaps the only one that puts this all into perspective: value per DAU. pre-mkt sub $8/shr implies nearly $16/DAU.
- yes. i get the massive SBC. it's what's alway made me hold my nose. yes i get the Evan votes my shares discount. but let's get real here, they're not *actually* burning cash. revenue growth is there b/c it follows DAUs. and mgns only continue to improve given the nature of this data-intensive product. oh - and in a world where AI eats everything digital, the only survivors (IMVHO) are ones with some form of human network effect. imagine trying to re-create this size/ scale product with this many users. possible. but for $16/DAU and technically profitable on a cash basis? good f'n luck.
- at this stage, i think we've entered extreme value. i'd love to own a lot more if/as we take out recent range lows in the low $7s, ideally mid $6s. but i'm not going to be overly greedy here and like the reflexivity option to the upside vs. extreme downside case all-in.
lmk if i've missed anything.
V
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.