Silver - A 50% Long Setup. Trade Only. No HODL.

12 Eyl 2023

In a post on Silver from June, I analyse that a run to $33 is on deck:

Silver - 33 Moons And An Options Opportunity

In the time that has passed, we've had two ~10% bounces that have been sold off.

To me, this is a peculiar pattern for a trendline play that leads to new lows in the immediate term future, and represents confirmation that $33 is on deck.

However, I'm also expecting a very bearish September across all markets, which I outline in a recent call on Nasdaq:

Nasdaq Futures - Are You Prepared For Red September?

Because I believe that we'll have a giant rally that takes out the tops of a lot of things heading into the end of 2023, and 2024 will mark the beginning of the real economic calamity.

When it comes to silver and gold being bullish in the long term, they should be, but the market manipulators will keep price supressed for a few reasons.

The first is that a renaissance in precious metals, or even a bubble in precious metals, will amount to promoting bullion, coins, bills, and even ore. These things are mankind's traditions, and are at odds with the current International Rules Based Order (IRBO) pseudo-Chinese Communist Party culture that more or less wants to install something like a cross between Shanghai's Zero-COVID social credit system and the Taliban.

The second is that China, which is still governed by the CCP and Xi Jinping, has bought an incredible amount of gold in recent times, if reports are true and not fabricated at least.

And so a short raid on precious metals would amount to a de facto economic sanction against China, which the IRBO claims to be de-risking against.

Moreover, if something should happen to the Party, whether that be natural disaster, a greater pandemic, Xi performing a Gorbachev-style coup against the Party overnight, or Heaven finally dealing with the CCP's 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual practitioners, because China holds so much gold, there will be open selling into the market.

Prices will crash because the very wealthiest families on this planet are safeguards of tradition and will take advantage of the situation to purchase back that physical bullion and jewellery at record low prices amid the chaos.

"Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if it's your own," they say.

So here's the current call on silver.

The fake double top below the early May gap at $25.5~ is definitely manipulation.

It's traded back too far and hasn't shown any bullishness to give us confidence that we're going to go from $23 to $26 or $27 as a breaker pattern.

Because "resistance" has been printed, many very large players and retail traders who are short will position their stop losses over $26 and $27.

This becomes a target.

And in the meantime the goldbug moonboys have long stops under $22 and $21, which just so happens to be an untested gap.

So the trade here is to either look at a short on a retrace to $24 with a target of $21~, or just wait for $21 with a target of $33 by year end.

And then sell it all. Sell your spot. Sell your bullion, if you can't be hedged short.

Silver will eventually truly appreciate, and in a significant way, but it's not very likely to manifest before the new future unfolds.

And so in 2024, we may really see numbers sub $15 again. Ergo, because metals are, in reality, ranging and not trending, it's not a market for "buy and hold" to be an intelligent strategy.

Good luck.