Based on the charts and the market's performance on Monday, September 22, the Sensex has also experienced a significant correction, breaking below a key support level and its rising channel. The market sentiment has shifted from strongly bullish to cautiously bearish in the short term.
Detailed Market Structure Breakdown
4-Hour Chart (Macro Trend)
Structure: The long-term trend remains bullish, as the index is still trading above its early September lows. However, Monday's strong bearish candle, which broke below the rising channel, indicates a significant shift in the immediate trend. The bulls' control has been challenged, and a deeper correction is now more probable.
Key Levels:
Major Supply (Resistance): 83,750 - 83,900. This level has proven to be a very strong supply zone, rejecting the price on its recent attempt.
Major Demand (Support): The most critical support is the 81,800 - 82,000 zone. This area, which includes a prior breakout level, is the key "line in the sand" for the long-term bullish trend. A break below this would signal a major trend reversal.
1-Hour Chart (Intermediate View)
Structure: The 1H chart shows a clear MSS (Market Structure Shift) to the downside. The price has broken below the lower trendline of the rising channel and its immediate support at 82,400. This confirms the short-term bearish bias. The index is now making lower highs and lower lows.
Key Levels:
Immediate Resistance: The 82,400 level, which was a strong support, has now become a crucial resistance. Any bounce is likely to be met with selling pressure in this zone.
Immediate Support: The next key support level is the 81,800 mark. This is a psychological level that was tested on Monday and aligns with the major demand zone.
15-Minute Chart (Intraday View)
Structure: The 15M chart provides a clearer picture of the intraday fall. The price is showing a minor consolidation after the sharp decline. This is likely a pause before the next move. The price has retested the broken trendline and is now moving lower.
Key Levels:
Intraday Supply: The 82,400 area, which is the high of the recent consolidation.
Intraday Demand: The low of the recent consolidation and the intraday low, near 82,100.
Outlook: The intraday bias is bearish. The market is likely to continue its downward movement unless it can reclaim the 82,400 resistance level.
Trade Plan (Monday, 23rd September)
Market Outlook: The market is now in a short-term bearish phase. A "sell on rise" strategy seems more favorable, but a strong reversal from a key support level is also a possibility.
Bearish Scenario (Primary Plan)
Justification: The market has shown a clear change in structure with a breakdown of key levels. The path of least resistance is to the downside.
Entry: Look for a short entry if the price retests the 82,400 - 82,500 level and shows signs of rejection with a bearish candlestick pattern. Alternatively, a breakdown and 15-minute close below 82,100 would trigger a short entry.
Stop Loss (SL): Place a stop loss above 82,550.
Targets:
T1: 81,800 (Next major support).
T2: 81,600 (Next major demand zone).
Bullish Scenario (Counter-Trend Plan)
Justification: This is a counter-trend plan and should be approached with caution. It is based on the possibility of a strong bounce from a key support level.
Trigger: A strong bullish reversal candle (e.g., a hammer or engulfing pattern) near the 81,800 - 82,000 demand zone.
Entry: Long entry on a confirmed bounce from the demand zone.
Stop Loss (SL): Below 81,700.
Targets:
T1: 82,400 (Intraday resistance).
T2: 82,600 (Recent swing high).
Key Levels for Observation:
Immediate Decision Point: The 82,100 - 82,400 zone.
Bearish Confirmation: A break and sustained move below 82,100.
Bullish Confirmation: A recapture of the 82,400 level.
Line in the Sand: The 81,800 - 82,000 zone. The overall bullish trend is in jeopardy if this level is decisively broken.
Detailed Market Structure Breakdown
4-Hour Chart (Macro Trend)
Structure: The long-term trend remains bullish, as the index is still trading above its early September lows. However, Monday's strong bearish candle, which broke below the rising channel, indicates a significant shift in the immediate trend. The bulls' control has been challenged, and a deeper correction is now more probable.
Key Levels:
Major Supply (Resistance): 83,750 - 83,900. This level has proven to be a very strong supply zone, rejecting the price on its recent attempt.
Major Demand (Support): The most critical support is the 81,800 - 82,000 zone. This area, which includes a prior breakout level, is the key "line in the sand" for the long-term bullish trend. A break below this would signal a major trend reversal.
1-Hour Chart (Intermediate View)
Structure: The 1H chart shows a clear MSS (Market Structure Shift) to the downside. The price has broken below the lower trendline of the rising channel and its immediate support at 82,400. This confirms the short-term bearish bias. The index is now making lower highs and lower lows.
Key Levels:
Immediate Resistance: The 82,400 level, which was a strong support, has now become a crucial resistance. Any bounce is likely to be met with selling pressure in this zone.
Immediate Support: The next key support level is the 81,800 mark. This is a psychological level that was tested on Monday and aligns with the major demand zone.
15-Minute Chart (Intraday View)
Structure: The 15M chart provides a clearer picture of the intraday fall. The price is showing a minor consolidation after the sharp decline. This is likely a pause before the next move. The price has retested the broken trendline and is now moving lower.
Key Levels:
Intraday Supply: The 82,400 area, which is the high of the recent consolidation.
Intraday Demand: The low of the recent consolidation and the intraday low, near 82,100.
Outlook: The intraday bias is bearish. The market is likely to continue its downward movement unless it can reclaim the 82,400 resistance level.
Trade Plan (Monday, 23rd September)
Market Outlook: The market is now in a short-term bearish phase. A "sell on rise" strategy seems more favorable, but a strong reversal from a key support level is also a possibility.
Bearish Scenario (Primary Plan)
Justification: The market has shown a clear change in structure with a breakdown of key levels. The path of least resistance is to the downside.
Entry: Look for a short entry if the price retests the 82,400 - 82,500 level and shows signs of rejection with a bearish candlestick pattern. Alternatively, a breakdown and 15-minute close below 82,100 would trigger a short entry.
Stop Loss (SL): Place a stop loss above 82,550.
Targets:
T1: 81,800 (Next major support).
T2: 81,600 (Next major demand zone).
Bullish Scenario (Counter-Trend Plan)
Justification: This is a counter-trend plan and should be approached with caution. It is based on the possibility of a strong bounce from a key support level.
Trigger: A strong bullish reversal candle (e.g., a hammer or engulfing pattern) near the 81,800 - 82,000 demand zone.
Entry: Long entry on a confirmed bounce from the demand zone.
Stop Loss (SL): Below 81,700.
Targets:
T1: 82,400 (Intraday resistance).
T2: 82,600 (Recent swing high).
Key Levels for Observation:
Immediate Decision Point: The 82,100 - 82,400 zone.
Bearish Confirmation: A break and sustained move below 82,100.
Bullish Confirmation: A recapture of the 82,400 level.
Line in the Sand: The 81,800 - 82,000 zone. The overall bullish trend is in jeopardy if this level is decisively broken.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.