2/6/25 - $run - donut. stay away.

2/6/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: RUN
donut. stay away.

- this thing will be volatile given 90% of the cap structure is debt
- but it doesn't generate any +ve fcf for the next years
- any uplift in solar will benefit FSLR and enph... everything else is trash.
- solar is VERY VERY hard to own at the moment, even our favorite name NXT is not the most obvious up and to the right chart (it should be, but remember we are in an industry tide still - perceived - go out)
- therefore, to maintain my NXT exposure which is my largest position even tho i am packing a lot of cash on the books, generally, WAY more than usual... i need hedges or i need to risk manage NXT
- RUN's chart is literally death.
- i wouldn't be surprised in a solar or mkt risk off to see this -50% and honestly, this company is for all intents and purposes a BK candidate.
- it's a donut. a bagel. a zero.
- so if you own it... you might want to re-think "why" and honestly i'm all ears considering i'm buying that short to zero, if you're inclined. otherwise we'll compare PnL on this thing at YE.

V

PS - the only ownable solar name in this tape IMVHO is nxt. a far away next is FSLR and then third is enph. i'm staying far away from the rest. if i *had* to pick a 4 it would be SHLS and if i had to pick a 5th... there is none, just buy BTC :)

2/6/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: RUN
donut. stay away.

- this thing will be volatile given 90% of the cap structure is debt
- but it doesn't generate any +ve fcf for the next years
- any uplift in solar will benefit FSLR and enph... everything else is trash.
- solar is VERY VERY hard to own at the moment, even our favorite name NXT is not the most obvious up and to the right chart (it should be, but remember we are in an industry tide still - perceived - go out)
- therefore, to maintain my NXT exposure which is my largest position even tho i am packing a lot of cash on the books, generally, WAY more than usual... i need hedges or i need to risk manage NXT
- RUN's chart is literally death.
- i wouldn't be surprised in a solar or mkt risk off to see this -50% and honestly, this company is for all intents and purposes a BK candidate.
- it's a donut. a bagel. a zero.
- so if you own it... you might want to re-think "why" and honestly i'm all ears considering i'm buying that short to zero, if you're inclined. otherwise we'll compare PnL on this thing at YE.

V