RePOST - Weekly Technical Breakdown – Week of June 22, 2025

QQQ
Weekly Technical Breakdown – Week of June 22, 2025

After a strong rally earlier in June,
QQQ
printed a wide daily broadening formation on Friday with an outside day that expanded Thursday’s range. This pattern signals indecision and possible structural recalibration. The final minutes of trading saw significant volatility due to quad witching flows, as institutions unwound or rolled large options positions. Monday’s open will be critical to confirm whether bulls hold or if a breakdown unfolds. The short-term range is wide, with support at 525.89 and resistance near 533.66. A breakout above 533.66 opens the door to all-time highs around 536.78. On the downside, an unfilled fair value gap spans 522.70 to 520.69, which could attract price if weakness develops. Intraday traders should watch pivots at 525.89, 527.27, 528.61, and 530.45 for scalps and key reactions.

Technical Summary

• Structure: Outside day forming a wide daily broadening formation
• Friday Note: Quad witching flows in the final minutes caused order flow imbalances and aggressive re-hedging
• Daytrade Pivots: 525.89, 527.27, 528.61, and 530.45 remain active intraday reaction points
• Macro View: Clean daily close above 533.66 supports upside momentum and breakout potential
• Downside Risk: Unfilled fair value gap from 522.70 to 520.69; holding above 525.89 early week is critical
• Momentum Bias: Friday’s candle signals indecision; Monday likely to define near-term direction

Key Levels to Watch

🟢 Upside Resistance: 527.27 (reclaim level), 528.61 (mid-range pivot), 530.45 (resistance zone), 531.87 (continuation trigger), 533.66 (breakout confirmation), 536.78 (all-time high territory)
🔴 Downside Support: 525.89 (must hold early week), 524.02 (range low / breakdown trigger), 522.70 (FVG gap top), 520.69 (FVG gap bottom), 519.86 (trend support)

Trade Plan
• Hold above 525.89 to target 533+ early in the week
• Daily close above 533.66 signals potential breakout run
• Break below 524.02 shifts focus to gap fill 522.70–520.69
• Intraday scalps effective between 525.89 and 530.45


Decision Map

🟩 IF QQQ HOLDS ABOVE 525.89 → reclaim 527.27 / 528.61 → target 530.45 → 533.66 → breakout toward 536.78 (ATH)
🟥 IF QQQ BREAKS BELOW 525.89 → watch 524.02 (structure break) → target 522.70 → 520.69 (gap fill) → trend pivot 519.86
Primary Trade Zone: 525.89–530.45

Alert List for Key Levels

Set alerts above price: 527.27, 530.45, 533.66
Set alerts below price: 525.89, 524.02, 522.70, 520.69

This Week’s Key Catalysts for
QQQ



QQQ
’s price action this week will be influenced by a combination of major economic releases and Fed commentary, alongside ongoing macro and geopolitical factors impacting the tech sector.
• The most important catalyst is Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, June 24. Powell’s remarks on the economic outlook and future rate policy could drive volatility and directional bias in
QQQ
, especially given market anticipation around possible rate cuts later this year.
• Additional Fed insights will come from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack’s speeches on Tuesday and Thursday, which could reinforce or add nuance to Powell’s tone.
• Inflation and economic data releases throughout the week—including durable goods orders, GDP revisions, consumer sentiment, and personal income/spending reports—will help shape market expectations for Fed policy, a major driver for growth stocks like those in $QQQ.
• The quad witching event last Friday increased short-term volatility and order flow imbalances, impacting the current technical setup.
• Longer-term geopolitical issues, including export restrictions on semiconductor technology and institutional buying trends, remain background factors but are less likely to move
QQQ
sharply this week absent new headlines.

Traders should monitor these catalysts closely and combine them with technical levels and price action to navigate the week effectively.