Potential Downside Scenario with High Volatility for QQQ

7 Eki

Given the recent performance of QQQ, which moved slightly upward during the second half of September but failed to hit a new all-time high, there's a sign of relative weakness compared to the broader market, which did achieve multiple new highs. Additionally, the Mag-7 stocks are showing short-term indecision, with some even hinting at potential bearish momentum.

Key Indicators for QQQ :

Oscillators: Most of the oscillators, including the RSI (50.38) and the Stochastic %K (51.85), remain in neutral territory, indicating no clear momentum in either direction. Momentum (-5.99) and MACD (1.69) both signal short-term bearish sentiment.

Moving Averages: The majority of short-term moving averages (10, 20) are in sell territory, while the longer-term averages (50, 100, 200) remain in buy territory, reflecting the broader uptrend. This suggests that, despite the recent pullback, QQQ is still supported by a longer-term positive trend.

Ichimoku Base Line (485.55) and Hull Moving Average (486.10): These levels are also signaling potential consolidation, as they point to selling pressure near key levels.

Conclusion:

As a result, there is a potential downside correction with increased volatility in the near term. If this scenario materializes, the current mixed signals from major tech stocks and the overall technical setup will reinforce a bearish trend, causing risk-reward conditions to deteriorate rapidly. In such a case, long positions should be carefully reviewed and managed accordingly.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always assess your own risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.