QES : A deceptive rally (Medium term - Wave analysis)

We saw many happy faces last week as QES broke its ATH and closed strongly with 16% gain on Friday. Some were highly bullish to say that the rally could possibly sustain up towards RM1 in the next few weeks. Based on our wave analysis however, we think things might turn out otherwise. Our wave count suggests that the recent rally might be in fact wave (b) at work that is almost nearing its completion. More often than not, wave B of an expanded flat retraces at the area near 1.236 or 1.382 of the length of wave A. In case of QES, we see very little upside left for price to hit the 1.382 area before progressing with wave (c) of wave IV. Potential target for wave (c) could be the area highlighted in the blue box area which equals to 1.618 of wave (a). Other point to add that would support our analysis is the negative divergence seen on RSI. This is a characteristic feature commonly observed in 5th waves or B waves that should NOT be ignored. We would like to see a break below RM0.735 to confirm our bearish bias on QES. We might be wrong in our analysis so as for now, we will continue to observe QES and ultimately let the market decides its next direction.