PRAX Analysis after new securities sales, and recent agreements
8791877 = Shares as of 31st December + New sales to BCPE
@
initial book value of 10.12 + (443k shares @ 22.56)
= 10.832665237 new book value
+
approx 4230000 of shares and warrants sales approx near @33.5
= approx 18.84$ / share
+ 5M in cash payment
= 19.22$ / share
Total Shares = 13021877
Anticipated quarterly loss between 2 to 3$ per share
264M$ on milestone achievements for development, regulatory and commercialization
(subject to milestone achievements)
Let's say milestones achievements takes between 6 mos to 2 years as follows:
1) 6 months scenario - development
= loss of approx 4-6$ per share
= +88M for development milestone achievement
= -5$ loss + 19.22 + (
88M if milestone is achieved)
= 20.597$ with milestone
= 14.22$ without milestone
2) 1 year scenario - development+regulatory
= loss of approx 8-12$ per share
= +132M for development+regulatory milestones achievement
= -10$ loss + 19.22 + (132M if both milestones are achieved) + (or88M if only one milestone is achieved)
= 9.22$ without any milestone
= 15.97$ with one milestone
= 19.35$ with both milestones
3) 2 years scenario - dev+reg+commercialization
= loss of approx 16-24$ per share
= +264M for development + regulatory + commercialization milestones achievement
= -20$ loss + 19.22 + (264M with 3 milestones) + (or 132M with two milestones) + (or88M with one milestone)
= -0.78$ with no milestones
= $5.97 with one milestone
= $9.35 with two milestones
= $19.49 with all 3 milestones
These calculations assume there's no other additional securities sale than above.
@
initial book value of 10.12 + (443k shares @ 22.56)
= 10.832665237 new book value
+
approx 4230000 of shares and warrants sales approx near @33.5
= approx 18.84$ / share
+ 5M in cash payment
= 19.22$ / share
Total Shares = 13021877
Anticipated quarterly loss between 2 to 3$ per share
264M$ on milestone achievements for development, regulatory and commercialization
(subject to milestone achievements)
Let's say milestones achievements takes between 6 mos to 2 years as follows:
1) 6 months scenario - development
= loss of approx 4-6$ per share
= +88M for development milestone achievement
= -5$ loss + 19.22 + (
88M if milestone is achieved)= 20.597$ with milestone
= 14.22$ without milestone
2) 1 year scenario - development+regulatory
= loss of approx 8-12$ per share
= +132M for development+regulatory milestones achievement
= -10$ loss + 19.22 + (132M if both milestones are achieved) + (or
88M if only one milestone is achieved)= 9.22$ without any milestone
= 15.97$ with one milestone
= 19.35$ with both milestones
3) 2 years scenario - dev+reg+commercialization
= loss of approx 16-24$ per share
= +264M for development + regulatory + commercialization milestones achievement
= -20$ loss + 19.22 + (264M with 3 milestones) + (or 132M with two milestones) + (or
88M with one milestone)= -0.78$ with no milestones
= $5.97 with one milestone
= $9.35 with two milestones
= $19.49 with all 3 milestones
These calculations assume there's no other additional securities sale than above.
Not
Given short term purchases at 35.5/share in total of 150M (recurring dilution until finished) and current shares outstanding, short term book value would be 19.22$ / share.Plus, as achievement of milestones is uncertain.
Although, cash burn is certain.
Considering imminent dilution to upto 19.22$ / share uncertainties on any milestones, imminent recurring cash-burn, and debt, the stock is trading at a significant premium.
Hence, a short tag!
Not
Today's rally, followed by sudden retracement from 45 to 40.7 indicates almost confirmation of a Double Top for PRAXİşlem kapandı: durdurma seviyesi
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.