5/10/24 - $pgny - took a look.. not worth it, upside capped

10 May

5/10/24 - vrockstar - took an hour to deeper dive this y'day (as i was forced to having gotten an average entry of ~224/SHR last night). the conclusion here is - you might see a retrace (which is what i was playing), but the story is defn a whole lot more complicated than meets the eye. perhaps on a valuation front, which is what i do, the FCF is practically all generated from stock comp. in a rising tide stock, that's fine and probably should be treated as stock. but in the event the stock is a multi-year or minimally multi-quarter event to re-find deep bids from new interested parties... and the stock is down considerably (look at it vs. the SPY by doing "PGNY/SPX" in your trading view... it is about flat since IPO. At about 15x earnings (as of ~mid 20's stock price), this is objectively probably value if you have more than a 6-9 month timeframe. Is this a unique name? yes. do they make money "yes", is it growing probably 10+% steady state? yes. is the bad news probably mostly priced in/ behind us at this stage "yes". BUT we remain in an environment where the co still still faces political overhangs, women are punting childhood further and esp for a more expensive treatment...

i think the prudent move is to wait until the dust settles. perhaps we end up buying this higher with more visibility - fine - but you don't lose the oppty cost of parking capital in a potentially dead money boat for some time. i don't think we'll see high 20s for at least 3 months. in a risk off scenario the stock will probably test $20. for that reason, i think risk reward is unfortunately too balanced to take a high conviction stake here and would rather focus my attention elsewhere. exited for a micro-loss and moving on. gl to all who know the stock better and are involved. be safe everyone.