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The_dumpster_diver
5 Mar 2019 19:49

oil volatility, reversion to the mean  Alış

CBOE Crude Oil Volatility IndexCBOE

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oil volatility or the implied volatility of USO is nearing an extreme.the futures are still in a decent contango.
so what does that mean? the cost of options both on the upside and downside is dirt cheap, but the cost of carry spread is nearing a reversion.
in contango CL futures outperform vs USO or a future equivalent etp due to cost to carry/decay. however when in backwardation (expansion in volatility) USO outperforms CL futures to the downside.
how to play. USO leap puts, calendars, put spreads or back ratios. vs CL call debits.
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