1. **Key Levels and Fibonacci Retracement:** - **Resistance at 0.236 Fibonacci (352B):** The price is testing this level after a sharp rebound. This zone acts as a critical barrier for further upward momentum. - **Support at 0.382 Fibonacci (310B):** Recent dips have found support here, reinforcing it as a strong level. - **0.5 Fibonacci (270B):** Acts as a major intermediate support level if bearish pressure increases. - **Golden Ratio (0.618 at ~240B):** If price drops significantly, this zone could attract buyers.
2. **Moving Averages:** - **200-MA (Red Line):** The trend is now above the 200-MA, confirming a bullish bias. However, failure to hold above it during corrections would signal weakness. - Long-term **upward momentum** aligns with the MA slope but is losing steam near current resistance.
3. **Parabolic SAR:** - **Bearish Trend Confirmed** near the local top (circled area) indicates recent exhaustion. - **Bullish Reversal Potential**: SAR flipped back below the price, suggesting possible continuation if the 0.236 resistance breaks.
4. **Volume Analysis:** - Volume peaked during the rebound, signaling strong buyer interest. However, recent declining volume indicates waning momentum, raising caution near resistance.
5. **Momentum Indicators:** - **OBV (On-Balance Volume):** Flat OBV suggests no significant accumulation or distribution currently, aligning with consolidation at resistance. - **RSI (47.53):** Neutral zone, slightly tilting bearish after a failed breakout. RSI needs to break above 50 to confirm bullish strength. - **CMF (0.01):** Near-zero CMF shows minimal capital inflow, reflecting uncertainty about market direction.
6. **Market Structure:** - **Higher Lows**: Despite corrections, the market structure remains bullish, with higher lows forming since early November. - **Lower Highs at Resistance**: Multiple rejections at 0.236 Fibonacci show hesitance for a breakout, suggesting the market needs stronger catalysts.
### Conclusion: - **Bullish Scenario**: A breakout above 352B (0.236 Fibonacci) with volume confirmation could target higher levels around 400B. Watch for RSI breaking above 50 and OBV upticks. - **Bearish Scenario**: A failure to hold 0.236 resistance could see a retest of 310B (0.382 Fibonacci). A break below this support might lead to a larger correction toward the 0.5 level (270B).
Recommendation: - **Aggressive Traders**: Look for confirmation of breakout above 352B before entering long positions. - **Conservative Traders**: Wait for a pullback to 310B or the 200-MA for better risk-reward. - Monitor **volume** and **RSI divergence** to gauge breakout strength or potential reversals.
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