Exit Bulls, Enter Bears or vice versa? Your move RBNZ!

25 Nis 2016

This Wednesday we have RBNZ's Official Cash Rate and Rate Statement. Will this news event give the signal for a bearish move to sub 0.7 levels? I can see price do a number of things by Wednesday.

• Already anticipating bad NZD news and break lower to 0.6680 region
  
• slowly moving towards the lower trend line which then breaks upon the news
  
• Staying around current levels (0.6840 - 0.6875) and then break lower OR
  
• Less likely IMO, move up due to relief
  

I'm biased towards lower levels even though RSI is almost and Stoch already oversold on 4H.
However, they aren't on Daily and thus I could see H4 levels getting stretched.

As indicated on the short I see various levels that could cushion the fall for weeks to come if we in fact move lower.

Let us see.

27 Nis 2016

Not

Looks like price choose option 3. It stayed close to the current levels although it did shrug the recently broken trend line after the USD sales figures.

If FOMC gives us a surprise we could see 0.668 or even lower. If it stays within expectations we could see a slower move to those levels but overall I am expecting the tone to be bearish for the last part of the week.

28 Nis 2016

Emir iptal

So much for dollar strength...

6 May 2016

Not

Double top formed. We might see lower after all.