#Kiwi Moves Hit TG-2 Target; Ignored TG-Hi | #Forex $NZD $USD

Friends,


SECONDARY TARGET HIT:

NZD moved straight to TG-2 = 0.7866 - 10 SEP 2014 after hitting primary target TG-1 at market close. This occurred against a low-probability qualitative target, namely TG-Hi = 0.84838 - 10 SEP 2014, which set the expectation of a price reversal from that level.

Instead, a quantitative-target was hit one after the other, bringing RSI to historically taut levels with it. As qualitative targets suggest, a 0.382 to 0.618 reversal is expected at this point, the maximum of this range would allow price to return to TG-Hi above.


SHARK TO 5-0?

Pattern trader are likely to recognize a Bullish Shark completion at the current level. TradingView.com data goes back to 1993, a period over which RSI never dipped as low as it currently reached.

Both Shark and 5-0 patterns are Scott Carney's discoveries, and can be reviewed under his site at HarmonicTrading.com - Shark's acolyte is a 5-0 pattern, which demand a 50% reversal from recent downswing.


OVERALL:

Primary and secondary targets have been hit. This contradicted n interim forecast where price was expected to rally to TG-Hi first, before reversing to TG-2. At this point, expect a moderate probability of a RETRACEMENT in the 0.382 to 0.618 range, and a low-probability REVERSAL to TG-Hi.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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