1/7/25 - $nvo - Probs a buy in low 80s... but...

8 Oca

1/7/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NVO
Probs a buy in low 80s... but...

Friend who highlighted some good calls last year DM'd me (ty!) about this one. Figured i'd copy/paste my response in case anyone could add to this logic or is more knowledgeable on catalysts timing etc.

1/ i typically stay away from pharma (mainly bc i look at so many sectors and this is the singular one i've never covered professionally)

2/ the financials look great. growth, margins, cf generation - all "A" grade

3/ unclear how the SAVA result will affect px performance in the coming days given diabetes seems to be a relevant part of the portfolio (but obviously this is a mega diversified name)
so in short, it's defn a buy here, but given my conviction on maybe 5 other names that i can really size up, i've set an even greedier entry look closer to sub $80... not that i'd not own it here, but just i don't want to overcomplicate my book at the moment while i'm moving/ shaking aggressively on other stuff.

4/ also, what the banana hammock happened on dec 19 - unlocking that "event's bottom"/ implication looks like the key to determining how low this goes. it's already massively oversold, so if it wicks much further, it's simply a buy on mean reversion anyway - could probably pick up an easy 5+% under $80 without even trying (which is my lazy approach here). but i don't fault u if u own it - looks legit.

5/ options chain implying meager MT move keeps me wondering if this is dead money for the immediate term and i should only be a greedy buyer in the mid 70s. i think there's a way to generate yield here, but feels too risk adverse for my style (high octane) until i can gear it up at these lower levels with a better sense for mkt rippity-do-dah

so - what do u think, anon?

V

14 Oca

İşlem aktif

bought some jan 31 2025 $75 C's for $6 bucks. small trading position on reversion. but low conviction (5 or 6 out of 10 idea)

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