a weekly price action market recap and outlook - nvidia #5
Good day and I hope you are well.
Last time I talked about Nvidia was 2024-06-08 and Nvidia was at 120.8 and my targets were 130/140. We are after the stock split so it's time for an update.
comment: Please check out my nvidia #4 post, to see how accurate it was. I wrote that once the W5 or third push up is done, we will see a 10-20 bars sideways to down correction. Since the first leg of the correction made 16% down, we can expect a second one, which would bring us to around 100$ (weekly 20ema is also there), which is an obvious magnet. There bulls can decide if they want to continue the bubble.
current market cycle: If we break below 114, we are probably forming a trading range between 100 - 140. If bulls buy this up again, bull trend continues.
key levels: 114 - 140
bull case: Everything as long as most bull trends hold. The big bull trend line is currently around 95 and bulls do not want a pullback that deep. They want this bubble to infinity and staying above the daily 20ema is crucial to do so. If they fail here, we will see 100$ soon. Having said all that again, it's a bubble and it will deflate. Maybe it already started and stock won't trade above 130 again for a long time. No one knows but the probable thing is a pullback to the weekly 20ema/100$ before market wants a retest of the ath. That can fail or even make a higher high before turning again.
Invalidation is below 100.
bear case: Parabolic wedge top broke to the downside but bulls still have 3 more bull trend lines as support. Bears are happy for now that they trapped all the bulls who bought above 130 and most stops will run around 115-118. Bears ultimately want to test the big bull trend line and the 100$ price. Thats a 40% drop and I wrote many times, that this stock will half again. Bears see the recent drop as strong enough for a second leg and the current trading range as a two legged sideways to up correction, which they want to break below from.
Invalidation is above 130.
short term: All bull targets are met and the ath will probably be tested. It's unsure if we get a second leg down first or after the retest. I slightly give it to the bears to push down to at least 117ish since the past days nasdaq & sp500 made new ath's while nvidia held below 130. Trapped bulls who bought above 130 will give up below 119 latest.
medium-long term: Over the next 6 months we should see the 1000 price area again and 6-18 months we most likely will see 800-900 again. --unchanged
current swing trade: Waiting for weakness on Monday and if bulls can't trade it back up, will do long term shorts for 100$.
Last time I talked about Nvidia was 2024-06-08 and Nvidia was at 120.8 and my targets were 130/140. We are after the stock split so it's time for an update.
comment: Please check out my nvidia #4 post, to see how accurate it was. I wrote that once the W5 or third push up is done, we will see a 10-20 bars sideways to down correction. Since the first leg of the correction made 16% down, we can expect a second one, which would bring us to around 100$ (weekly 20ema is also there), which is an obvious magnet. There bulls can decide if they want to continue the bubble.
current market cycle: If we break below 114, we are probably forming a trading range between 100 - 140. If bulls buy this up again, bull trend continues.
key levels: 114 - 140
bull case: Everything as long as most bull trends hold. The big bull trend line is currently around 95 and bulls do not want a pullback that deep. They want this bubble to infinity and staying above the daily 20ema is crucial to do so. If they fail here, we will see 100$ soon. Having said all that again, it's a bubble and it will deflate. Maybe it already started and stock won't trade above 130 again for a long time. No one knows but the probable thing is a pullback to the weekly 20ema/100$ before market wants a retest of the ath. That can fail or even make a higher high before turning again.
Invalidation is below 100.
bear case: Parabolic wedge top broke to the downside but bulls still have 3 more bull trend lines as support. Bears are happy for now that they trapped all the bulls who bought above 130 and most stops will run around 115-118. Bears ultimately want to test the big bull trend line and the 100$ price. Thats a 40% drop and I wrote many times, that this stock will half again. Bears see the recent drop as strong enough for a second leg and the current trading range as a two legged sideways to up correction, which they want to break below from.
Invalidation is above 130.
short term: All bull targets are met and the ath will probably be tested. It's unsure if we get a second leg down first or after the retest. I slightly give it to the bears to push down to at least 117ish since the past days nasdaq & sp500 made new ath's while nvidia held below 130. Trapped bulls who bought above 130 will give up below 119 latest.
medium-long term: Over the next 6 months we should see the 1000 price area again and 6-18 months we most likely will see 800-900 again. --unchanged
current swing trade: Waiting for weakness on Monday and if bulls can't trade it back up, will do long term shorts for 100$.
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Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.
İlgili yayınlar
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.