Nasdaq’s bullish close provides platform for record highs
Nasdaq 100 futures have closed above 20370 for the first time since July 16, providing a platform for bullish trades to be established with a tight stop below for protection. The record high of 20984 seems an appropriate initial target.
Granted, the bullish move wasn’t underpinned by meaningful volumes, which would have been nice to see. But RSI (14) has broken its downtrend and MACD has flicked higher after the briefest of ventures below the signal line, hinting momentum may be in the early stages of turning.
Everyone knows the US inflation report is out Thursday, creating a risk event. But traders have already removed more than three rate cuts from the Fed funds futures curve by the end of 2025, so the threat posed by a hot number does not look as acute as a month or so ago.
It’s also worth remembering that while higher US bond yields erode the value of future cashflows, so large are the cashflows of the tech titans they don’t need capital markets to fund their growth like smaller, cyclical firms.
Therefore, I’d be more concerned about outlook for US small caps if the inflation report were to print strong.
Good luck!
DS
Granted, the bullish move wasn’t underpinned by meaningful volumes, which would have been nice to see. But RSI (14) has broken its downtrend and MACD has flicked higher after the briefest of ventures below the signal line, hinting momentum may be in the early stages of turning.
Everyone knows the US inflation report is out Thursday, creating a risk event. But traders have already removed more than three rate cuts from the Fed funds futures curve by the end of 2025, so the threat posed by a hot number does not look as acute as a month or so ago.
It’s also worth remembering that while higher US bond yields erode the value of future cashflows, so large are the cashflows of the tech titans they don’t need capital markets to fund their growth like smaller, cyclical firms.
Therefore, I’d be more concerned about outlook for US small caps if the inflation report were to print strong.
Good luck!
DS
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