Bearish H&S pattern. NQ to 9700?

27 May 2022

Greetings All,

My bearish thesis for NQ futures this summer:

• Bearish H&S pattern, with a neckline break (bearish). The market is has retraced to this neckline, which is a classic pullback test.
  
• Multiple (7) bearish divergences on the daily bar.
  
• Price is well below 200MA.
  
• 20MA is resistance for now.
  
• Price is rising, volume is falling, indicating bearish divergence.
  
• NQ may consolidate sideways between 11700 - 12600, before making a measured move to the downside.
  
• The 9700 target zone area is calculated using the distance between the HEAD and NECKLINE, coupled with the break in the NECKLINE.
  

My bullish thesis for NQ futures this summer:

• Multiple (4) bullish divergences on the weekly bars. This week's candle substantiates these divergences.
  
• RSI pivoting up from oversold condition in previous week.
  
• Price is at 50% retracement level with (3) rejections at this level forming
  strong support (bullish). I also consider retracement to the 61.8% level as bullish price action.
  

Bull Thesis Chart.


Happy Trading