Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and Gold

Nasdaq
The Nasdaq closed lower following news of additional tariffs on China. On the daily chart, the index failed to break above the 20-day moving average and pulled back to the 5-day MA, continuing its box-range movement. Since the 5-day MA is still acting as support, the current trend can still be seen as a sideways consolidation, with 18,500 acting as a central pivot level.

The MACD on the daily chart has not yet clearly broken above the Signal line, so it remains uncertain whether it will make a golden cross with additional upward momentum, or turn downward again. Thus, it’s best to adopt a neutral range-bound trading strategy, keeping strict stop-losses on both sides.

On the 240-minute chart, both the MACD and Signal line have moved above the zero line, entering a key area to observe whether the third wave of MACD upside begins after this box-range consolidation. Since the current price is correcting after a rebound from a double bottom, and is maintaining the center of the prior bullish candle, buying remains more favorable. Unless the previous day’s low is broken, it’s better to stay buy-biased.

Please note that today's PPI data release is scheduled, which may lead to increased volatility around the announcement time.

Crude Oil
Crude oil closed lower with a large bearish candle. On the daily chart, it failed to hold the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, breaking below the 5-day MA. The MACD continues its downward slope, and unless oil clearly reclaims the 10-day MA, the market will remain bear-biased.

There is resistance now at the 3-day and 5-day MAs, so it’s important to see whether further downside unfolds. As previously noted, the $59 level is a key support zone — watch closely for any breakdowns.

On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is trending up and pulling the Signal line along, but both remain below the zero line. If oil continues in a box range but the MACD turns downward again and forms a dead cross, there could be another leg lower. For now, continue to focus on buying near the $59 level, and maintain a range-trading approach until further confirmation.

Gold
Gold closed higher with another strong rally. On the daily chart, the MACD has now crossed above the Signal line, generating a buy signal. However, this signal will only be valid if today’s candle closes as a bullish bar, so watching the daily close is critical.

Gold hit new all-time highs during the pre-market session, with the long-awaited 3,216 level, which has been the target since March, now within reach. Beyond this level, we enter the overshooting zone, where it’s difficult to define a precise top. Therefore, it's best to stick to dip-buying strategies, as safe-haven demand continues to surge.

Even though the MACD has crossed bullishly, divergence may form if the current MACD fails to exceed the previous peak. Avoid chasing long positions at the top; instead, look for entries during pullbacks.

On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has climbed above the zero line, showing a strong one-way bullish trend. RSI across intraday charts is now in overbought territory, so it’s best to avoid short positions entirely for today.

Market Sentiment & VIX
Looking at the VIX index, the daily candle has once again broken above the 5-day MA, indicating that volatility could expand further at any time. With Trump’s remarks shaking markets, it’s impossible to predict what new developments might emerge over the weekend.

Avoid holding overnight positions due to heightened headline risk, and make sure to wrap up this trading week with solid risk management.
Wishing you a profitable trading day!

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