Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and Gold

NASDAQ
The Nasdaq closed lower, forming a lower wick at the bottom. The market initially dropped in pre-market trading due to Trump’s tariff imposition issue but recovered to close the gap after the one-month grace period for Mexico was announced.

At yesterday’s closing price, the daily MACD triggered a sell signal. Although there was a gap-up today, further declines are likely as the resistance level holds. However, the MACD and Signal lines are still above the zero line on the daily chart, and it will take time for the 3-day and 5-day moving averages to pull down, suggesting that the index may form a wide-ranging box pattern before the trend leans towards further declines.

On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal appeared, and after a rebound, the MACD and Signal lines are reconnecting. Since a golden cross has not yet formed, a sell strategy on rebounds would be favorable. If the MACD fails to break above the Signal line and declines, a third wave of selling could follow.

From a broader perspective, the 5-day moving average on the monthly chart coincides with the lower boundary of the daily box pattern. Until this level is strongly broken downward, short-term buy opportunities remain valid near the lower boundary of the range.

OIL
Oil gapped up but closed lower. The price failed to break above $75, leaving an upper wick. The one-month tariff grace period for Canada resulted in a gap-down movement.

The key question is whether oil will attempt another rebound, using the 240-day moving average as support. It is crucial to see if a bullish candlestick forms while maintaining support above the 240-day moving average.

On the weekly chart, oil is trapped within a box range, and as the week progresses, it will be important to assess whether conditions develop for a breakout next week.

On the 240-minute chart, a rebound has occurred up to the 60-day moving average, following the characteristics of the 240-day moving average. Since the MACD and Signal lines remain below zero, selling pressure may persist. However, this is a high-probability divergence zone. If the third wave of selling fails and prices rebound, a sharp surge is possible, so traders should be cautious with aggressive short positions.

The overall approach should be to trade within the range, favoring buy positions on pullbacks.

GOLD
Gold dropped to the 10-day moving average but found support and closed higher. On the monthly chart, a pullback to the 3-day moving average around 2,770 is possible, and a correction to the low 2,800s has already occurred.

Gold's volatility is extreme due to tariff issues, so traders must carefully adjust their leverage to ensure safe trading.

On the daily chart, MACD continues to rise, so as long as the price does not close below the 10-day moving average, a buy strategy is recommended.

On the 240-minute chart, gold formed a buy signal after a pullback and is attempting a third wave of buying. However, it is crucial that gold continues rising to avoid forming a bearish divergence. If further gains do not materialize, gold may enter a box pattern.

Overall, a buy strategy remains favorable for gold. However, traders should be cautious of increased volatility due to today’s JOLTS report.

■Trading Strategies for Today

Nasdaq - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 21510 / 21410 / 21345 / 21220 / 21120
-Sell Levels: 21580 / 21640 / 21680 / 21780

Crude Oil - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 71.80 / 71.30 / 70.50 / 69.85
-Sell Levels: 72.75 / 73.15 / 73.80 / 74.50

GOLD - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 2844 / 2832 / 2827 / 2820
-Sell Levels: 2859 / 2864 / 2870 / 2874 / 2885

These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.

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