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NQ Q4 (10-01-23)

NAZ September range had a 7.2% decline from month high to month low and closed with a 5.2% H/L decline. For the month the NAZ only recorded a 4.20% decline. More downside is possible, the intraday price action was the month of shake outs and the worst I have ever seen. The O/N (Overnight) continues to produce what appears to be Pump/Dump set ups or Drop Offsets. These O/N lifts usually get sold off during the regular session. We still have not seen (since 1/2022) any limit down O/N sessions, we had 3-4 during Covid Bear.

Daily Chart: KL's (key levels) to watch and are in play. 15239, this level will has strong resistance and may be a upper retest. 14787, Below here may retest KL 14369 (also Fib level). 13150, Danger Zone retest and may actually happen should the O/N produce a few limit down sessions (we are overdue, do not count this out).

15682 was original Short call and still the trend. The intraday price action is extremely weak and the VIX is moving up, things may get even worse. October may be a harder month than September and we may just be getting started. The NAZ appears to struggle to get lower, bounce, stall and then sell off. October will be a 2 way trading opportunity as I believe the O/N will loose or weaken with the counter regular session lifts. COT still has a high level of Short positions. Block the noise and trade the key intraday periods. Do not trust the O/N near Open lifts, these have been selling off during the Open Range/Drive.

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October starts out with a Gap Up (in Overnight) to start the month. Sells off 110 points as we approach the Regular Session. The O/N prop plays may not work as well in October, just a thought. Sold off at KL 15010 and is holding at TLX 14877.

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Monday's and 1st day of a Quarter are usually pretty bullish. The NAZ is stuck in Mid O/N Range. Not a sign of strength, wait for break out of range for next move. Expect the O/N Rig Pop Plays, Dead Zone Rallies and final 5M of Close games t end or lose effect. Big volume will show up to the downside and clean out the riffraff (should these plays loose all strength).

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100 points in Final HR, typical predictable moves are still working. O/N to lift it some more. Mag 7 are holding the entire market up, they just holding it up until the BTD/FOMO's show up.

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Dow down, SP Flat and Russell down big. 10YN Yield is up, Crude lower and VIX Up. That would equate to a 1% lift of the NAZ, OK. Not sure I buy that and may be cautious as I take Chase/Follow Longs. Bid/Ask Delta was negative all day and the Ticks were mostly negative.

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10/2/23 Private Daily Forecast

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Riffraff clean out #2 today.

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Below is my Private Post for 10/3. Since it will be a brutal day I thought that I would share with all followers. Good luck and we may see a 1 way day today. The post will be updated as much as possible but not as much as Private Chat.

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14884 hit and Red Dot zone. BTD/FOMO's need to wake up and lift it here.

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10/3 Lower target hit and then some.

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10/4, O/N hit 14586 and may play inside O/N Range today.-7% may not be enough for big Pop, may need to near -10%. Today will see how eager the BTD/FOMO's are with their 1 way strategy. Short any stall out and KL's today are 740 and 800.

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10/4, 6:30 AM CT, Drop from 14725 to 14680 and Pop to 14840 is likely. Just thought I would mention it. This will set up next move.

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Another O/N Pump and Dump ?? Why stop now. BTD/FOMO Forever. 840 is KL for lift and next clue. Have today as the push Pull PA has been asleep.

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Pump Dump, NAZ under O/N High.

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740-650 is range to watch

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Red Zone Retest

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No Red Zone pass or 840-60, this is day of major drop and may go sideways for awhile.

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880 is a Short to 750 for O/R Mid Retest. No Drop it will go up 100. Wait for break out.

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1% lift may not be enough and NAZ will try for 8-10% for better bounce.

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Needs to pass 840 for expressway or may come back up.

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Still in Shake out range, Hard to believe that 1 O/N lift could redirect this multi day drop. Disappointing but normal.

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Targets on next move higher, if so.

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840 hit now has to get under the Red Zone.

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Stepped away and back, The Short from 880 fell to 805, just 5 point above O/N high and 15 above OR Mid Level. The NAZ is just juiced and no other explanation. The O/N lift is being protected and most likely just another Drop Offset play to push the NAZ up and give it some room for the next drop. O/N will most likely lift more so do not short the close, highly unlikely that this will fall today or prior to Open tomorrow. 85% retracements are normal (of yesterday drop).

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Should hit target of 980

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10/5/23 KLOD 14880, NAZ will rotate around, Long above and Short below. No Prop in O/N is usually not good for the NAZ. Today should see lift, stall, drop type PA or sideways to lower. Open Range estimate is 14850 - 905. Good luck and BTD/FOMO Forever.

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10/5 Daily Forecast, yesterday was a long trap and drop offset.

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Reloaded for 2nd drop or O/N Lift Drop offset for Friday Open. KLOD Key LLevel of Day 14880 is what to watch here.

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Weak Close with 20M left, NAZ could not hold or pass Yesterday's gain so the O/N may step in the Rig It up some by Friday. Other than that, the final 5M of close may do its thing to boost it some. Regular Open Drive's continue to drop while Dead Zone and O/N continues to lift back up. Pattern continues and nothing new.

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14880 is under the long tern channel and failure to get in and stay in may send NAZ back to 14650.

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10/6/23 Update Pre Open: NAZ protected in the O/N, kept away from Danger Zone. 1st move should be up with Jobs Number. Open will drop test the Rig Pop.

Daily and upper target above 14985. Diablo squeeze at KL 14850, usually produces decent pop out, 1st. 850 to 985 is the idea and take it from there.

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Long above 14870 and 880 hold is key, NAZ needs to break out of Blue Box Zone. Targets are 14905, 925 and 950-985. 950-985 may stall or have a pull back to sideways. Way up will have long shake out moves, NAZ showing extreme weakness in O/N. Strange thing is that this usually leads to a decent move on the Long side 1st. The weaker the strength the more it get Propped up in the O/N. The Jobs number is Pre Regular Session Open.

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Got to 925 and back to KL 14880. Scalp was trade and flat until release, NAZ not showing any direction here, no strength on Long and O/N can't prop equals a look at the Short side.

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May check back later, FYI when NAZ does not get a O/N Prop Job it is usually an ugly Regular Session. Just a fact and use a stop if you go Long. 14898 is Short under for now, NAZ at 14890.

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Out of Box and to 650, WOW

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650 is support on a Hold. Good Luck with that.

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under 850 is Short, NAZ will float back up.

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The Whipsaw works like this: Retail buys and the Institutions sell after a stall the flip takes place and Institutions short and create the Lon Tarp. This gives them the opportunity to get out at a higher price. May happen today or next day or so.

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Large Block selling at 920

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920 and up looks like an air pocket

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Shorting at 055, 30 point stop and 920 target, edge trade

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Bid/Ask Delta is seriously negative, not normal for a lift up. Should see a snap.

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Near upper target, have to get aggressive.

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Adding to short at 15050

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Stop at 15060

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Rigged and most likely a Long Trap.

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Push/pull should show up. If not no loss and will drop Monday

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Stopped and will reload under 89

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106 or 239, we will see, no hit chase the drop

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Short Shake out, may go on for awhile. Have a good balance of day. Use some long profit on the big short today/Monday.

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Orange Zones are FA's NAZ may take these out and drop. Not unusual and drop may be next week. No hit today may try Monday or in O/N.

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10/8: The PA on Friday was an extreme Drop/Pop with typical Friday BTD/FOMO Long chasing. The NAZ hit both the lower target and upper target or ran the full range. The October value is about 100 point above the 10/2 high. On 10/3 (in this post above), I posted the chart below. These FA's (orange zones) have now been hit.

The FA's are reliable and the chart below is on update from Friday. Range 14,100 - 15,600 and expect the full range to play out by month end. Based of the 10/3 chart, you can see that the action may play out as a drop/pop or pop/drop, Friday was coiled and just played out in 1 day. I would expect any failure above to do the same to the lower FA (may play out in a few days, from hit/failure above). Chase it up and Short it high or play near 14950 for drop/pop to upper with short on failure to pass. Getting interesting as many feel that 10% decline in in the works, NAZ bounced off 9%.

FA 10/8 Update

Daily Chart

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10/9, NAZ will drop to lower FA, trying to stay in price channel bottom at 14985. Break lower will test 14885. NAZ typically moves in 100 point chunks. NAZ volume is 50% compared to same time on Friday, selling volume and just watch the whipsaw.

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Private Forecast Upper target is 15064 and we got hit, may drop on stall out, KLOD is 15010, short if breaks below KLOD.

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No pass of 15040-50 is strong Short back to 950

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Caution, KLOD 15010 hold may break up some , then drop later, play range 010-065

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KLOD is Key Level of The Day. When accurate the price will approach and stay above or below for most of the day. Any break later in the day is the strong counter move. Today we have rotated and approached a few times since Open.

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Careful with shorting the Snail Dead zone PA.

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100 point chunks, 950 to 060 and look for 010 up for 100 and then sideways to drop back for 100

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15064 3 rejects and price under KLOD, sideways to lower unless Dead Zone can Magic pop.

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EU Close is next period to watch, NAZ still in Long Run territory, KLOD is level to watch.

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NAZ rejected at Upper target and near test of 14950, staying in bottom channel 14985. Retest of 950 and break of White TL is lower and above is 950-010-065 Range.

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No pass at 010 and Tick change is Strong 950 retest and potential Short signal.

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Stayed above 950, KLOD 010 and now Gap Fill. Ready to drop should lift stall out. NAZ is flat on the day. Regarding FA's, NAZ took out mid FA (drop/pop) and may approach upper, should this stall out look well below. Friday's typically lift into Monday with Tuesday / Wednesdays drop test. Gap filled and flat US is what to view mid day.

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100 point move from 050 - 150 move drop back

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155-75 should be upper turn Zone

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10YN Yield is dropping because the Bond market is closed. This my be the Algo lift here. Interesting to see if it hold tomorrow. 1st Upper FA is gone.

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Low volume is exaggerating the moves, strong short under 15210, At this point the volume is 64% of Friday total volume and will need a boost in final hour. Boost will need to be buying volume.

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Just watch the Whipsaw now and in O/N or by Open Selloff.

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This updated FA's zones at 2:15 PM CT, NAZ will drop to to these before next move up or drop through. Why I called the SHORT.

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See YA. Careful here and next day or so as this new issue unfolds in Mid east.

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10/10 Hit KL 15239 and will test FA's below.

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Orange Zones are FA's below.

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The key item since Friday was the number of FA's that developed getting the NAZ higher and then the lift on Monday while the Bond markets were closed. The typical Holiday or off session or Overnight plays are somewhat sneaky. The Regular Session today or tomorrow will drop test the recent lift.

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Near EU Open, Other world Indexes are way up, the US should be much higher or may rally should the drop test hold or not happen.

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Long Trap for Open Drop test is likely

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KLOD 15218

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Spike volume on Friday with drop off yesterday, so far today rate is off or slower.

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Big move on the way, NAZ in 15-20 point range most of O/N. May be Long, look for stall out near upper target. If no and drop test 1st, look for hold.

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15191 -15279 Range to watch on Lift, should 240 break and retest hold from above.

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NAZ broke 200MA and is testing 500.

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KLOD holding true, 15090 may be next.

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Struggling, needs to stay under KLOD or the snail PA will come in and lift it up like Magic.

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Just play 2 FA Zones above and below Open Range.

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Lower 1st then upper 2nd or vice versa

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Garbage is back, push pull next

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Top FA and Divergence, should see a drop near 15280

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KL's on way down 240, 210 and 180

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12 lower days are replaced with 3 up days. Should see a drop test on stall out under 280.

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316-350 is stop clean out and look for 316 retest to potential 280 and 240.

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Short at 15355 with 30 point stop. Target 316 and 280.

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Stop at 395 and adding to Short at 370

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Stop at 425

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NAZ hits MA and bounces, looking for retest of White arrows as Divergence develops.

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373 looks like Top

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15170 is ultimate target with CPI Knee Jerk Range for next day.

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Lowered stop 1st arrow hit

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NAZ got reject at upper Channel and will play between the two FA Zones. Looking lower 1st for now. Still in Short with Lowered Stop.

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The 20 minute 125 drop from 15375 was a drop test that has not been bought quickly. May drop more when a slow buy in takes place, careful on BTD/FOMO here.

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They run it up to scare you to Short this thing. If this is you, you have to get over it.

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Just watch KLOD for Strong Short Play if we get there. Not sure that happens though.

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10/11 Shorts got closed at KL 15280 for about a hundred in points x 5 contracts, White arrows are same drill as yesterday for drop test #2. 1 contract short as I do not see divergence here.

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Volume is 20% less her vs same time yesterday. Since Friday, volume has been declining. Momentum pausing or shifting. Open is what to look at, O/N is 90% up with sell off in Open Drive. Short may be early, we will see.

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Should drop happen in O/N, that would be very bad for Regular Session.

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Momentum shift may be the play today, sensing some weakness. KLOD is 15316

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Short, Arrows hit and may go up here. Still think Open does the usual 1st move drop/test.

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For Open, NTZ 275-340, to be safe if you are Flat. Wait for break out. Seeing some push/pull, Will update later.

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274 break is Strong Short, White Line

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Here come the Neg Ticks, Careful with the BTD/FOMO strategy today. Whipsaw may be in works. KLOD hit and needs to break.

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Now under KLOD and in 50 point range all day, may drop big or pop big, thinking drop some and not big.

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Got to 275, 240 is lower out of channel trade316 and under is Key

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295 looks like support, closing Short

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350 is target for next move

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295 will move 50 or so in 1 direction, not sure which.

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240-316 is a range that has some key targets.

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295 Long in the Dead Zone and into O/N lift to the moon Zone, should of known. Knowing the clowns is better than knowing how to trade.

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Hang on, 350 is mid OR and no pass is extremely bearish, this may drop big in the final hour. I am flat and watching.

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final 30 pop off KLOD, Orange are FA's and these will be hit, upper and lower.

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Index on Fumes. The sideways to lower PA in the majority of time and the spikes are pops that do not hold. Looking very weak intraday past two days.

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10/12 Pop then drop, Fade any pop. 15000-25 should be turn zone.

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Past few days I have been Shorting and taking profit and NAZ pos back up. I have taken some small longs. The focus is on the time with a direction and yesterday was mostly push/pull with very quick spike pops. FA's above and below and these have been reliable as targets/reversal zones. Above turn zone was typo, 15500-25 on Long Pop. Sorry about that, chart below is range.

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1st FA taken out

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15330 is KL and Bounce or Strong Short Target

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Late Close Rally yesterday and O/N was drop offset, NAZ will play in range and drop on break through or try higher than O/N high. 360-460 is range, 360 break look at 330 for pop, slight push pull here at 370.

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KL 398 may see hook short at KL 426 no pass. NAZ in Mid Range, just no seeing the strength lately just games. God luck today.

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Ticks consistently negative, 390 test and break.

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Today looks like a Top MOP that will clean out in range and then drop, Just watch KL 469

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Tricky, just more games.

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Just garbage tricks.

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If you took the short, you may want to hold it for a few days.

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390 break is 330

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Has to break out of day range for deep Short

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KL 316 is strong support

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316-240 are lower targets should it pop back up some.

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Could be start of whipsaw that I have been mentioning.

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260-90 may be retest and add on no pass

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Typo 360-90

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250 is outside day reversal

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This is Private Forecast, Lower target may be a reach.

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FA Zone below, in play

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PA so bad, may see flash crash. Not Kidding.

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Yellow line may be the last high of 2023

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KL 218 Long support, wait for retest hold or short stall out lift. 2 trades here, pick 1.

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Closed Short ay KL 240, I am Flat and want to see how this day closes and the O/N PA for next major loaded up trade. If this lifts up, The Long side just can not be avoided unless evil Long Trap.

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316 and under should be a short back to low.

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Lower FA Zone mostly cleaned out.

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Short under 218 KL no pass

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Break here into weekend and Mid East War and falling markets may go here. We will need some Friday Prop Magic and O/N into Monday to keep the Rig Going for another day.

İşlem elle kapatılmış

BTD FOMO Forever, I will close this post and it has been real.

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IDS20 show H/S at 15100, lets see Inverse so would go up.

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Long at 15095 to 15200-300, the POP will se up better Short and just confuse and trap more people. use 30 point stop just in case

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Move stop to Buy in

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15095 got to 15144 and is hold, may work and back at 15125

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15125 Needs a Hook Long here with Lower Indicator

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15125 Needs a Hook Long here with Lower Indicator

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move stop to 110

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Lets go Rig Team #1, move or leave the stop you have to decide.

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Remember the final minute's and odd times of the day is when the biggest moves happen, the rest is just garbage games. Raise stop, 50 point gained so far.

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110 is support here and may be good for O/N Hold. They will shake you out though.

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Will leave Long at 15095 with stop at same, Chart entry and target. RIGGED.

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10/16, Friday late Long Scalp level is holding true, bounced to near 15200. Expect wide range of nothing much as Fed Speech (most of the week) will pause the moves.

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10/16, Like I said on Friday at low, expect a strong counter move near 200-300 that will confuse most and potential better short set up. Here we are.

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I am flat and will let it play out, KLOD 180 is retest on lower and 340 is upper resistance.

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FA's above and below are targets. Juts remember the drop to where we are and how there was FA's down here.

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15316 drop test was bought quickly. Earnings will have to be perfect. Monday's usually move up, followed by the typical Friday Prop. Since Friday did not pop, you would expect the Monday Pop. We may see a big shift the Fixed Income and away from Mag 7 Tech over balance of the year, keep this in mind should the rallies stall out and stay away from BTD/FOMO play.

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4HR FA View

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Thursday was outside day reversal followed by Friday break out lower and today is inside, target 1 is 368 and target 2 is 469. No pass Look Short.

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315 is Long or Hook Short play at 2PM

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10/17 Short call and Private Post

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10/18 Short Call Private Post

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Post LINK

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