NQ/QQQ Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (Mar6-10)

6 Mar 2023

SUMMARY
• Nasdaq posted a 2.71% gain last week after trading in a range of 476 points
• Price closed back above the 9/21/55 emas & 200 sma.
• All S&P Sectors closed the week green except the defensive XLY & XLU sectors. The XLB & XLI sectors posted the biggest weekly gains. Adding 4.20% and 3.35% respectively
• NQ will start the week above the 12000 psychological level.
• NQ remains above the long term downward trendline closing the week at the key Dec 12th pivot high
• Key support below is the downward trend line and the 382/618 fib zone below.
• Key resistance above is the Dec 12 pivot high and the 618 Fib RT
• Narrative has flipped again to Fed pause/pivot with dovish speech from Bostic.
• Econ happenings this week include 2 speeches by Powell, BoC Rate decision & Non-Farm Payrolls
• Important to watch bond yields closely. It would be very bearish if the 10y yields rise above 4% again.
• Market is currently reacting to bullish technicals more the bearish fundamentals.
• Be mindful that most recent vertical moves have been retraced.

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WEEKLY EVENTS

Monday US Factory Orders
Tuesday Powell speaks & US Wholesale inventories
Wednesday US ADP Employment Change, US International Trade, JOLTS, BoC Rate Decision & Powell Speaks
Thursday Initial Jobless Claims & Fed’s Barr speaks
Friday US Non-Farm Payrolls

NOTABLE EARNINGS

Monday CIEN, TCOM
Tuesday CRWD, DKS, MANU, SE
Wednesday CPB, PBR
Thursday BJ, AUY, DOCU, GPS, JD, ORCL, ULTA, WPM
Friday FUTU

BULLISH NOTES

NQ back above 9/21/55 emas & 200 SMA
Bullish weekly close after bouncing off downward TL
Potential move back above Dec 12th Pivot high
Potential positive reaction to Powell speeches
Potential positive reaction to Non-Farm Payrolls
Entering a historically bullish period for stocks
Massive short covering possible Feb 2nd High is broken

BEARISH NOTES

Potential rejection at Dec 12th Pivot High
Potential negative reaction to Powell speeches
Potential negative reaction to Non-Farm Payrolls
Most vertical moves have been retraced in recent months
Bond yields may move above 4% again

7 Mar 2023

Not

NQ_F made and early bull move this morning but the gravitational pull of the Dec 12th high pulled it back down. Not expecting a large trend move until after the Powell hearing starts tomorrow. Resistance and support levels remain the same.

8 Mar 2023

Not

After the sharp sell off yesterday NQ_F has found support just below the 21 ema. Now in a holding pattern just chopping sideways since yesterday's close. Market waiting on Powell again due up at 7am pst/10am est. I will be focusing on a break from the overnight range for trades today. Next support = 200sma then downward trendline.

8 Mar 2023

Not

9 Mar 2023

Not

Continued to chop within the sideways range yesterday. Now threatening to break the top of the box after payroll data came out weaker then expected. Above the box look for a move to the Dec 12 high. Below the box look for a move to the 200. Either of the those levels break look to the next pivot high or low.

9 Mar 2023

Not

1st Upside target achieved. Treat as resistance until broken. Monday's high would be the next target.

10 Mar 2023

Not

The Dec 12th high proved to be solid resistance as the NQ dumped yesterday on the neg bank news. Trading below the 200 again on the futures. Treat that as the bull/bear line this morning. Look for selling below buying above. Thur low would be the 1st target to the down side. 21ema the 1st target to the upside.