Changed the call to Range from Short (looking Short, still). I would buy into the long side if the gains did not primarily happen outside of the Reg Session. Seems light, rigged and soft. FOMO and chase during the no - low volume final weeks, probably my last weekly post of the year. This week: Long above 21,885 and Short below. Friday-Monday Rig Long has stalled and will resume on Monday with O/N Pump/Dump into the Open, that reaction is key for price action this week.
AI, B Coin, Go Fed, Mag 7 are all leveraged and extended. Let us/me see some power in the Reg Session and I will get on board to the LONG side. Will not based off up moves in the Overnight that fizzle out in the Reg Session.
AI, B Coin, Go Fed, Mag 7 are all leveraged and extended. Let us/me see some power in the Reg Session and I will get on board to the LONG side. Will not based off up moves in the Overnight that fizzle out in the Reg Session.
Not
200 point range today for break out move, 885-685. NAZ is up 100 points in the O/N and Monday 2nd half of F-M Long move may play out or we have another O/N Pump/Dump and the NAZ will drop back to retest 685. Nothing has changed with O/N being The BOSS and controlling the show. This should continue through Year End and 1st week of 2025.Not
O/N levels are the targets, H/M/LNot
PMI out and not looking great. Should see a drop test. Riggers will get you to chase.Not
Need to go back to odd Reg Session strength on Friday and the Sunday Monday O/N lift, not following the mystery.Not
Back later, will place stop at 22,010 and let it run. Should go back inside O/N Range. Not
Typical Monday, looking for drop prior to Fed Day and looking for 1st drop at a stall out. Not
stopped, back on looking for 22,035 test with adding short at level, under 22,035.Not
Nasty snail lift day.Not
Loading more at 22,120, Short.Not
Stay Short until Fed Day release. Tough but use a stop if you are nervous. Not
adding short at 22,140Not
Snail up and Jet Crash Lower. 22,035 is 100 point 1st move lower. NAZ usually moves in 100 point segments. Not
Wait, Apple may have a thinner I Phone. Breaking news, that may pop the NAZ. That is all it takes in FOMO world. Not
That was a Joke, FYI.Not
350 point move and over half in Reg Session, that is a plus on the bull side. May be early on Short. Just can't see NAZ popping another 200-300 in O/N, that would be a stretch.Not
12/17 Update, NQ1 is off so you need to view NQZ. I will use that for charts as all TL's and KL's are on. NAZ did retest the KL 22,035 and popped back up. That hit took off my shorts because it did not stay under KL. When scalping Short against the mega trend you need to take off trades at target hits and do not wait for the big move as it will not usually show up when you need it. Still looking SHORT and feel FED DAY will show a curve ball of pop/drop as the pop will create a great exit level for many that want out. Not
NQZ not NDZNot
NAZ above 30% YTD return may show snap back move. Since January of 2022 (3 years ago) the NAZ has moved 33% or an average CAGR of 10%. An average of 10% will show a move to 20% or Zero % as an OK move and any move outside will/may retrace back to average. An average is a result of time and not quick peaks or valleys. Do not chase as many underlying stock inside the Index are well above their longer term averages, the stocks are the index. Not
Notice how NAZ keeps hitting KL 22,035Not
The Danger Zone is clearly 21,885 and they will do everything to keep it above the zone. Just watch if it goes below and stays below. Above the DZ is Strong Long. Now you know why Thursday, Friday and Monday had the strange lift up. The F-M Long and Short on Tuesday did work out and has been the pattern for months. The O/N does have a new -7% limit down and the last (only) time the O/N has dropped big since 2020 the drop was erased intraday and was not even noticed. Expect to see some more lower O/N sessions by end of 1/25. 2020 had three 5% limit down sessions in the O/N, half of the 1 month drop in 3 days. The pop was purely a result of the Trillions that the Gov't pumped in (not an option next time). Most Mag 7 are vertical, that is not sustainable and should or may produce a decent retest lower (prior to next vertical up). Not
590 is next KL under currentNot
Then 475 if we really get going.Not
All stocks are Dead Red on the board. Not
Waiting on NVDIANot
Previous buyers set up this drop (for the sellers).Not
Negative 1200 on ticks, crazyNot
Ticks negative 1500, may be bottom or crazy break lowerNot
12/19 Update, Yesterday was the twice as far and twice as fast Short Day that I mentioned last week. The O/N propping and stabilizing is easy to see but hard to Short (time) precisely. The Air Pockets show up and stick out (but keep climbing) and you have to short into the trend (while it is climbing). Again, trading has changed over the prior 4-5 years to be 1 way Long with simple tricks & patterns. These fast food type (cheap) moves will kill you or the market eventually. Through in the fact that the Smart Money pro's need the retail BTD/FOMO to open their exit (Long Trap). The NQ1 is 300 points higher that NQZ, Yellow arrow is the actual drop or low and the white arrows are prior Turn Zone Air Pockets that are targets on a further drop. Keep in the the Long move back up and the low volume tricks as we move into a few weeks of nothing price action. The NAZ may lift with same tricks for 2 weeks and drop the entire move in a few hours come the 1st week in January. Not
Volume jumped December 16, 17 & 18th, was much lower in prior weeks as the that was the weak buying that played into the heavy selling. We may see another or more weak lift and then heavy selling cycles as the Long exit may be bigger move that plays out over the next month or so. Not
Rigged, this is part of the exit plan which brings buyers into the selling. Whipsaw, should NAZ not drop then buying only is back on. Not
350 point cushion, not 250. So huge range to play in. Not
Notice how only sustained Long moves are only in Pre Reg Session, Selling is counter to Buying in Reg Session. Not
Yesterday drop erased 11-12 prior trading days gain. Just keep in mind that the U Turn play back up is still in play. They O/N rig play up and Friday-Monday long play is still active and a threat to the Shorts.Not
12/19 Overnight is selling off. The chart below will show Reg Session Zones (Yellow Arrows). The Black background are Reg Session, Blue are Final Hour and other shades are Overnight. I have been saying that all moves up have been in Non Reg Session, now look at the Reg Session selling. What I am pointing out is how the NAZ is manipulated with the O/N and the Reg Session usually sells off or will go sideways. When the O/N sells off that will be very bad for the NAZ should the Reg Session not redirect.Not
12/20 Update TGIF, BTD/FOMO Forever. The NAZ is lower 250 points and NQ1 is still off 300 points vs Current NQZ. Chart below is NQ1 with old TL's and MA's, the O/N low is NQZ value of 20,846 and 20,725 is the potential target and U Turn Zone for today. 21,195 and under Short was call and look for NAZ to try and move back up into range or near 21.195. On chart the yellow circle to the left is a U Turn zone that the NAZ will need to get above in order to go Long. Make sure you understand the 300 point differential vs NQ contracts, the NQ1 is actually 300 points lower than what it shows. Not
Lower O/N is an anomaly (like a Bigfoot sighting), just watch out for the -7% Limit Down Bigfoot, it may be lurking as we have not seen a O/N limit down session in 5 trading years and had 3 (-5%) limit down in 2020. That was when to O/N was used to drop the NAZ. The limit down is now -7% so it will be easier to manipulate any drop. Reg Session usually sells off and throw in a few limit down O/N's and we are back at 2024 open price (just a few days would do it).Not
S&P Index is due for some sideways price action in 2025 and 4,800 is lower retest and Long above. In other words, may see a drop and below KL 4,800 is only worry. Anything above will just paly in range. We were at 5,100 in August, so doable if NAZ loses concentration and Rig Power. NAZ breaks down and all break down.İşlem elle kapatılmış
So far nothing has changed with our typical patterns. Friday-Monday Long Play and predicted U Turn into. The next few low volume weeks should be sideways to up unless this is part of a larger Long Trap. Closing post and have a Great Holiday. I may provide some updates over the next few weeks if things get interesting and the NAZ moves out of this range or gets below the lower U Turn danger Zone. Not
12/28 Update, I hope everyone had a great Holiday, just looking over the price action of prior trading days. Look for similar upper TL and lower TL redirects until we see a breakout. May see lower U Turn attempt 1st, then run up stall out 1st week of 2025. Should that happen and the lower TL not hold on 2nd attempt, go with the Strong Short. NAZ is currently at (exact) Mid Level of range.Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.