NQ1 100 MF - AT A CRITICAL LEVEL !

MONTHLY (M1)

After having reached an intra-month low @ 13'706 the Nasdaq recovered nicely to close on a monthly basis @ 14'905, slightly above the Tenkan-Sen which was in January
@ 14'841.... BUT BELOW THE 15'000 AREA, which has been mentioned in my previous analysis !

38.2% Fib ret filled @ 14'834

Indeed, a monthly and closing level above the 15'000 would force to a view reassessment of the expected bearish scenario calling for the FIRST STRATEGIC TARGET @ 12'894.

Intermediate monthly support level @ 13'745

LONG TERM PICTURE REMAINS BEARISH !

WEEKLY (W1)

Previous week price action triggered a DOJI pattern, which means uncertainty about further development; ongoing candle is showing, for the time being a white candle, which is :

1) Above the weekly clouds

BUT BELOW :

1) The Tenkan-Sen
2) The Kijun-Sen
3) The Mid Bollinger Band

All those 3 indicators are confirming the ongoing downward pressure, calling for lower levels !

Only a sustainable recovery above the cluster (15'180-15'240) on a weekly closing basis would neutralise the ongoing persisting downside risk.

DAILY (D1)

Yesterday's price action triggered a long white bullish candle which closed @ 14'905, roughly at the level of the ongoing secondary downtrend resistance line.

Today's price action, particularly it's closing level would be important as that could be the first warning signal of a validation or invalidation of the downtrend
line breakout !

Nevertheless, I would remain cautious, having in mind, that even if today's closing level is above 14'800, there are, above, still a couple of obstacles to breakout such
as :
1) The Mid Bollinger Band (15'112)
2) The Kijun-Sen (15'182)

which corroborate with the view expressed on the weekly picture previously mentioned.

On the downside, watch :

1) the ongoing uptrend support line (in green) which also coincides with the level of the Tenkan-Sen (@ 14'523)

A daily closing level below 14'523 would reopen the door for lower levels

4 HOURS (H4)

Currently slightly above the 4 hours clouds; recent and current price action in this time frame is showing a lack of follow through, coupled with a growing uncertainty about further
upside (small candles, small bodies !)

Watch the Tenkan-Sen (14'682) as the first significant support level in this 4 hours time frame !

A failure to hold above it on a H4 closing basis, would put the focus on the Mid Bollinger Band (14'473) ahead of the Kijun-Sen (14'398) and the H4 clouds bottom zone, currently @ 14'360)

RSI is turning down, still on a rising channel

1 HOUR (H1)

Currently above the clouds but below the Mid Bollinger Band and the Tenkan-Sen !

Watch the Kijun-Sen (@ 14'690) as the first support in this time frame.

A failure to hold above this level on H1 closing basis, would open the door for the clouds support zone (14'400-14'270)

Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki