NQ Breakout

28 Haz

NQ didn't have much of a reaction to PCE, but has rocketed after consumer sentiment came in better than expected. Seems like the market is going to be full risk on mode for the summer at this point. We made it through PCE and more jobs data, no fear whatsoever. Next stop is ATH, we'll see if this holds up, seems like I lt will for now.

28 Haz

Not

So today ended up being pretty good IMO, we finally had some tradable volatility. It has been brutal chop lately if you ask me. NQ had a big fakeout to the upside early in the session. Things cooled off for the mid morning and early afternoon, but we saw a lot of volatility ramping up in the final hour.

NQ broke below 20k and instantly dumped nearly 100 points. It made a quick recovery, but sold off again before close. I see both the volatility and the close under 20k as bearish. However, bears haven't been doing so well lately so I'll be waiting for more confirmation that NQ is in fact finally starting a larger pullback.

I'll need to see VX have some sustained strength as well. It had another breakout today towards the end of the day, so we'll see what happens. All year long every time VX has broken out, it has reversed very quickly, it has been in decay mode all year and since 2023.

I still believe in my short thesis, but it is senseless to keep shorting into this strength so I have toned it down a lot since CPI/FOMC. I've still been taking shorts, mainly on the weaker assets like COIN and BTC, but I am waiting for that real confirmation with a big VX breakout and support breach on NQ + NVDA to really get bearish again. Taking it day by day for now.