S&P CNX NIFTY INDEX FUTURESGüncellendi 22APR2021_EXPIRY_OUTLOOK
Only 1 session left for 15APR2021 weekly expiry. Hence published the technical outlook for next weekly expiry.
Global factors to look at: Rising corona cases, risk of economic lockdown, inflation fear worry investors. US & Europe markets trading near ATH. Asian markets had faced intense selling during this weekly series.
• Markets are highly volatile one day sell off next day rebound.
• Gold has entered bear market with correction of 20% from ATH.
• Brent Crude is trading near 62.4 after 10% correction from top.
• US 10Yr yield > 1.63. Despite FED tap on, its holds above 1.6
• DollarIndex is near 91.85 mark. Has cooled off significantly
• US/Europe indices Dow/Nasdaq/S&P500/DAX/CAC40 hits ATH
• All global ETF's down by 10% including "iShares Trust India ETF"
• USDINR brokeout above 74.9. Ready to trade in higher orbits.
Technical Outlook BankNifty = Sideways to #Bearish
• BankNifty after falling 20% from top bounced in last session.
• BankNifty has formed VSABottomReversal price pattern in daily
• But till the run away gap is not filled better to avoid longs
• RSIStairs[14] < 45 in D/H charts. RSIStairs[14] W = 52. Weak
• ADX[14]=28.32 and rising. (DI) has given bearish cross. Weak
• BankNifty next major support zone is placed near 29000-29998
• Resistance placed at 32645/32880 followed by 20 DEMA 33375
Technical Outlook Nifty = Sideways to #Bearish
• Nifty has broken 20 DEMA = 14753, 50 DEMA = 14675 on Daily
• Nifty still holding major neckline support of 14522 on WCB
• Nifty forming lower #DarvasBox in daily TF. 14261 Neckline
• Nifty has formed VSABottomReversal price pattern in daily.
• RSIStairs[14] < 45 in Nifty in D/H charts. RSIStairs W < 60
• Mean.Revert and PVT indicators given sell signal in Nifty.
• ADX (DI) given bearish cross in #Nifty and trading at 17.87
• Nifty is trading within the HVN (High = 15266, Low = 14261)
• Nifty major resistance at 14675/14765 & support at 14261.
Additional data points:
• COI dropped significantly in BankNifty in last few sessions.
• Short selling restriction imposed by SEBI is still in force.
• If a level is tested time & again, chance of breaking is high.
• PCR very low indicates oversold market. May give some bounce.
• Majority of Nifty heavy weights to declare results this week.
Trade plan: Trade with hedged short in Nifty as we are trading below 20 and 50 DEMA. Also Nifty is forming lower low structure. If someone is holding portfolios then he must hedge it through proper bearish spreads by beta hedging. TrendFollowers would have faced tough time in recent times when Nifty moving in either directions. One day it breaks out and next day retraces big and vice versa. Very difficult to create positions. But going by the weekly charts and DarvasBox principle created below strategy.
-1x 29APR2021 FUTURES : ₹ 14556
+1x 29APR2021 14300CE : ₹ 406
-1x 29APR2021 14000PE : ₹ 83.9
-1x 29APR2021 13550PE : ₹ 35.1
-1x 29APR2021 15000CE : ₹ 63.9
Prob. of Profit : 77.07%
Maximum Profit: ₹ +24,968(13.83%)
Breakevens : 13218.0-15032.0
Net Credit: ₹ 0
Estimated Margin/Premium: ₹ +180,472
Global factors to look at: Rising corona cases, risk of economic lockdown, inflation fear worry investors. US & Europe markets trading near ATH. Asian markets had faced intense selling during this weekly series.
• Markets are highly volatile one day sell off next day rebound.
• Gold has entered bear market with correction of 20% from ATH.
• Brent Crude is trading near 62.4 after 10% correction from top.
• US 10Yr yield > 1.63. Despite FED tap on, its holds above 1.6
• DollarIndex is near 91.85 mark. Has cooled off significantly
• US/Europe indices Dow/Nasdaq/S&P500/DAX/CAC40 hits ATH
• All global ETF's down by 10% including "iShares Trust India ETF"
• USDINR brokeout above 74.9. Ready to trade in higher orbits.
Technical Outlook BankNifty = Sideways to #Bearish
• BankNifty after falling 20% from top bounced in last session.
• BankNifty has formed VSABottomReversal price pattern in daily
• But till the run away gap is not filled better to avoid longs
• RSIStairs[14] < 45 in D/H charts. RSIStairs[14] W = 52. Weak
• ADX[14]=28.32 and rising. (DI) has given bearish cross. Weak
• BankNifty next major support zone is placed near 29000-29998
• Resistance placed at 32645/32880 followed by 20 DEMA 33375
Technical Outlook Nifty = Sideways to #Bearish
• Nifty has broken 20 DEMA = 14753, 50 DEMA = 14675 on Daily
• Nifty still holding major neckline support of 14522 on WCB
• Nifty forming lower #DarvasBox in daily TF. 14261 Neckline
• Nifty has formed VSABottomReversal price pattern in daily.
• RSIStairs[14] < 45 in Nifty in D/H charts. RSIStairs W < 60
• Mean.Revert and PVT indicators given sell signal in Nifty.
• ADX (DI) given bearish cross in #Nifty and trading at 17.87
• Nifty is trading within the HVN (High = 15266, Low = 14261)
• Nifty major resistance at 14675/14765 & support at 14261.
Additional data points:
• COI dropped significantly in BankNifty in last few sessions.
• Short selling restriction imposed by SEBI is still in force.
• If a level is tested time & again, chance of breaking is high.
• PCR very low indicates oversold market. May give some bounce.
• Majority of Nifty heavy weights to declare results this week.
Trade plan: Trade with hedged short in Nifty as we are trading below 20 and 50 DEMA. Also Nifty is forming lower low structure. If someone is holding portfolios then he must hedge it through proper bearish spreads by beta hedging. TrendFollowers would have faced tough time in recent times when Nifty moving in either directions. One day it breaks out and next day retraces big and vice versa. Very difficult to create positions. But going by the weekly charts and DarvasBox principle created below strategy.
-1x 29APR2021 FUTURES : ₹ 14556
+1x 29APR2021 14300CE : ₹ 406
-1x 29APR2021 14000PE : ₹ 83.9
-1x 29APR2021 13550PE : ₹ 35.1
-1x 29APR2021 15000CE : ₹ 63.9
Prob. of Profit : 77.07%
Maximum Profit: ₹ +24,968(13.83%)
Breakevens : 13218.0-15032.0
Net Credit: ₹ 0
Estimated Margin/Premium: ₹ +180,472
Not
Disclaimer: All these stock ideas or trade updates shared here are for educational purpose only and completely non-advisory in nature. I am not a SEBI registered analyst and strongly recommend people not to trade in NSE / BSE / MCX market basis this ideas. Objective of posts is to educate and help members learn technical analysis and hedging techniques from my personal trade picks to reduce the risk per trade and save yourself from bigger losses.All these trade picks are selected using technical analysis and price action (VSA MomentumInvest Trading Setup) and for my own trading purpose only. Technical indicators are lagging and may generate false buy/sell signals. Market is supreme and my views may go horribly wrong. Please don't consider these trade ideas as trading recommendations. You may consider it for learning or at max use it for paper trading. Strictly avoid it for trading using real money. I am not responsible for any kind of profit and losses arising out of the above calls. Stock market trading and investment is subject to market risks. Contact your financial advisor before taking trades (or trade at your own risk).
I am reachable on below social handles.
EMail_ID:- prasuna.barik@pbfin.in
Telegram: t.me/PBFin_222
Twitter: twitter.com/PB_Fin
Indicator access process given here tinyurl.com/VSASetup. Follow it for details.
EMail_ID:- prasuna.barik@pbfin.in
Telegram: t.me/PBFin_222
Twitter: twitter.com/PB_Fin
Indicator access process given here tinyurl.com/VSASetup. Follow it for details.
I am reachable on below social handles.
EMail_ID:- prasuna.barik@pbfin.in
Telegram: t.me/PBFin_222
Twitter: twitter.com/PB_Fin
Indicator access process given here tinyurl.com/VSASetup. Follow it for details.
EMail_ID:- prasuna.barik@pbfin.in
Telegram: t.me/PBFin_222
Twitter: twitter.com/PB_Fin
Indicator access process given here tinyurl.com/VSASetup. Follow it for details.
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