NIFTY : The tentative stage of a market melt-up stage PROB#2.1
This analysis represents a modified view of the chart analysis initially published on TradingView on March 1, building upon the insights provided in my previous assessment labeled "NIFTY : The tentative stage of a market melt-up stage in PROB#2". The modifications take into account evolving market conditions and additional data, and it is important to recognize that market dynamics can change rapidly.
Please be advised that this updated analysis is subject to inherent uncertainties and should not be considered a standalone recommendation. It is highly recommended to refer to the original assessment labeled PROB#2 for a comprehensive understanding of the initial insights. Users are encouraged to exercise caution and conduct their own research before making any trading or investment decisions based on this modified view.
Remember that trading and investing involve risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always stay informed and consider your individual financial circumstances and risk tolerance.
NIFTY and other market charts were analyzed in their raw form: THE CURRENT STAGE
In October-November 2023, NIFTY exhibited a broadening pattern. Typically, such formations, following coiling, break either upward or downward. When formed at the top, it is generally considered a reversal pattern. However, in November 2023, it broke upwards and precisely reached the target measured to the R point (maximum width between 4 and 5 in the broadening formation) in January 2024. Subsequently, I evaluated whether, after reaching target R, NIFTY would experience a significant drawdown similar to BANKNIFTY, as depicted in the chart below. This outcome is a probable result after reaching the target.
Currently, NIFTY has moved out of the pennant coil, a continuation pattern. It is expected to make a move towards the 25200 levels (measured from 4 to R pole length), approximately 14% from the breaking point of the continuation pattern. This is anticipated to be achieved within the current year.
BANKNIFTY, upon reaching the minimum range target R in the broadening formation (attained by measuring the minimum width between 1 and 2), experienced a significant pullback back into the broadening pattern, as indicated by the orange trajectory line. This is a typical outcome of broadening formations, where reaching the target forms a strong resistance (R) and encounters substantial rejection.
As of now, BANKNIFTY has formed a W pattern (dotted orange trajectory line), and the W target, approximately 4.8% towards the previous resistance, is currently in progress.
NIFTY CHART LINK:
BANKNIFTY CHART LINK:
Please be advised that this updated analysis is subject to inherent uncertainties and should not be considered a standalone recommendation. It is highly recommended to refer to the original assessment labeled PROB#2 for a comprehensive understanding of the initial insights. Users are encouraged to exercise caution and conduct their own research before making any trading or investment decisions based on this modified view.
Remember that trading and investing involve risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always stay informed and consider your individual financial circumstances and risk tolerance.
NIFTY and other market charts were analyzed in their raw form: THE CURRENT STAGE
In October-November 2023, NIFTY exhibited a broadening pattern. Typically, such formations, following coiling, break either upward or downward. When formed at the top, it is generally considered a reversal pattern. However, in November 2023, it broke upwards and precisely reached the target measured to the R point (maximum width between 4 and 5 in the broadening formation) in January 2024. Subsequently, I evaluated whether, after reaching target R, NIFTY would experience a significant drawdown similar to BANKNIFTY, as depicted in the chart below. This outcome is a probable result after reaching the target.
Currently, NIFTY has moved out of the pennant coil, a continuation pattern. It is expected to make a move towards the 25200 levels (measured from 4 to R pole length), approximately 14% from the breaking point of the continuation pattern. This is anticipated to be achieved within the current year.
BANKNIFTY, upon reaching the minimum range target R in the broadening formation (attained by measuring the minimum width between 1 and 2), experienced a significant pullback back into the broadening pattern, as indicated by the orange trajectory line. This is a typical outcome of broadening formations, where reaching the target forms a strong resistance (R) and encounters substantial rejection.
As of now, BANKNIFTY has formed a W pattern (dotted orange trajectory line), and the W target, approximately 4.8% towards the previous resistance, is currently in progress.
NIFTY CHART LINK:
BANKNIFTY CHART LINK:
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UPDATE: <Refer chart from the link below>Before reaching the final trajectory point R4 there maybe a substantial correction during August/September 2024.
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### Chart Analysis Update - 22/05/2024
**Current Levels:**
- Major indexes have recently reached a Fibonacci level of 2.272 from the 2022 support levels.
**Tentative Long-Term Projections:**
- **End of 2025:** Projected levels are at 32,000, as indicated by the chart.
- **End of 2028:** The projection stands at 43,000 levels, supported by trend channels and historical data.
**Observations:**
The market maintains a robust upward trajectory within established trend channels. Ongoing monitoring of retracement levels remains essential for confirming sustainability. Our proprietary indicators offer detailed insights into market movements, supporting informed decision-making.
**Proprietary Indicators:**
Utilizing the MEQ ECLIPSE system by MARS EQUITY, we employ advanced technical indicators to enhance market predictions, including:
- **Precision in Trend Analysis:** Identifying key support and resistance levels accurately.
- **Predictive Analytics:** Utilizing algorithms for forecasting potential market movements and volatility.
- **Market Sentiment Analysis:** Gauging sentiment to anticipate shakeouts and pullbacks effectively.
**Current Strategy:**
Recent sessions have seen a spike in VIX, signaling increased market volatility. Consequently, 50% of the capital has already been tactically deployed in these sessions. Detailed projections for portfolio components are charted, with adjustments made for recent market movements.
- **MID & SMALL Cap Indexes:** Poised to break from the broadening template, these indexes are expected to surge in the coming weeks, driven by the melt-up factor.
- **Stock-Specific Movements:** Anticipate varied movements in individual stocks based on technical strength in the upcoming months.
While major indexes appear stable for the year, expect sharp corrections, pullbacks, or shakeouts as new highs are reached. Monitoring VIX levels and market sentiment remains crucial for effective risk management.
For more insights on the MEQ ECLIPSE system and its applications, visit [MARS Equity](marsequity.in).
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This comprehensive update encompasses current market analysis, long-term projections, observations, proprietary indicators, and the current strategic approach.
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