NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

27 Oca 2024

The Index came under the firm grip of bears. Any spike is dealt with by strong selling pressure. With two weeks of continuous bearish candles, the ensuing week may also witness continued selling pressure. It remains to be seen if Index has completed the up move or still some steam left. The two major events are scheduled for the week viz. FOMC, Interim budget.

A few observations from the weekly charts are:

• The index moved in a range of 613 points viz. between 21750 and 21137
  
• The oscillators of different time frames are showing mixed signals
  
• Monthly candle close and Option open interest to drive the direction of the market
  

Expected scenarios for the ensuing week

• As noted in the previous Blog, the resistance at 21850 is back as major supply zone.
  
• We may see sellers emerging after every spike
  
• Additional interesting observations
  
• Last week candle is a strongly bearish candle
  
• Index may find supports at 21220, 21080, 20870 and the index could face resistances at 21460, 21570, 21670, 21770
  
• There were multiple gaps created during this dream run. The levels were repeatedly mentioned in the previous blogs. Since they are far away for now, they will be inserted back when relevant
  
• As highlighted in the previous blogs, the return journey may equally be harsh.
  

Final Note

• The Index has stayed well above 55 DMA at 20900
  
• Dramatic shift of sentiments seen in the past 2 weeks
  
• After 2 weeks of bearish candle, it is normally expected to be followed by another bearish candle. However, this may get negated if the Index manages to reclaim 21760 zone
  
• It was highlighted in our Blog during the first week that January month has produced negative candles in the past 2 years
  
• With Monthly candle close and the FOMC scheduled for the final working day of the month coupled with the Interim budget scheduled a truncated week ahead, we may witness volatile sessions with Whipsaw moves
  
• Index is still within the ascending channel. Break below 21050 could lead to more trigger of stops and we may quickly see 20850
  
• The fault lines lies at 21670 at the higher side and 21050 on the lower end.
  
• Most likely scenario would be a consolidation between 21050 & 21770
  
• Till we see a daily close above 21670, we may see selling pressure to continue
  
• The ensuing week is crucial to decide further direction of the market
  

#Stay Safe



Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.