NIFTY prediction for tomorrow 18 Jan 24

17 Oca

As we discussed NIFTY yesterday, "Sideways in the channel if they break to the downside, will turn BEARISH." It opened the downside and gave a very nice bearish moment.
For tomorrow, if we look at the chart and OI data, it's a very bearish situation.
if we look into OI data PCR = 0.55(weekly) and 0.80(for next week included.) that means monthly is still neutral.
If we look at the chart, 21500 is a very good support ZONE, which has been providing support multiple times. This time, it might also take support from there. But on the above side, EMA(200) will be providing resistance at (21650). I am expecting it to take a retracement, and then it will fall again. There are two main possibilities right now. that have been marked on the chart.
On the other hand, it has broken the pattern to the downside. If, after retracement, there is volume pressure to sell, it will fall to the next levels of 21250 and 21000. but for now, the main hurdle is 21500.
I am expecting the market to take minor support at 21500, and if after that it starts falling and breaks 21500 to the downside, a good fall in the market can be expected.

Reasons:

1. Price < EMAs, which indicates the bearishness in the market.
   
2. RSI < 40, oversold zone shows bulls are weak at this point. So some retracement and then again fall is expected.
   
3. Price < VWAP that shows bearishness in the market.
   
4. RSI is showing bullish divergence (marked as Blue), which means 21500 is highly likely to provide minor support. Once the RSI is adjusted, it might fall again. but for now, the RSI needs to be adjusted.
   
5. OI data shows PCR = 0.55 which is huge bearish.
   

Verdict:
Bearish (21500 minor support); if breaks to the downside after retrace.

Plan of action:
Wait for 15 min candle. Make position how it behaves at 21500 PA.