NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

4 Haz 2023

The past week saw choppy moves between 18464 and 18662 and finally closed midway at 18534. Last week’s Hammer seem to work perfectly and the Index is gliding towards the potential first target of 18600 and possibly the next Fib projection of 18720.

A few observations from the weekly charts are:

1. The index moved in a range of 198 points viz. between 18464 and 18662
   
2. The oscillators of different time frames are showing marginally positive signals
   
3. Monthly new candle shows signs of upward bias for now
   
4. Option open interest to drive the direction of the market
   

 
Expected scenarios for the ensuing week
The index has made primary base at 18060 followed by another base at 18200 and the next at 18450-470 range
Index may find supports at 18420,18280, 17140 and the index could face resistances at multiple levels 18660.18740,18830

Additional interesting observations

1. As observed in the previous blog index has cleared the monthly peak levels of the past viz. 18134(Feb 23 High), 18251(Jan 23 High), and 18251(Jan 23 High),18350(Jan 22 High)
   
2. The Index is entering positive territory and may remain biddish till we see a weekly close below 18250
   
3. The observations of the previous Blogs repeated for quick reference with fine tuning: The Index broke the downward sloping channel starting Nov 22 which was having a height of around 850 points. The target from the Break-out levels suggest that this rally has potential till 18650-800 with hurdles on every 200 points starting 18180
   
4. On weekly charts the Index has formed an irregular Inv H&S with about 850-900 points from the neckline which targets around 18900
   
5. There had been multiple Gaps created during the up move (These are for quick reference as these are risk zones for sharp moves)
   
6. 17126-17221(far away for now)
   
7. 16650-16770 (far away for now)
   
8. 16360-16560 (far away for now)
   

Final Note

1. The Index has stayed well above the long-term trend line and the 200 DMA at 17850
   
2. Index is moving in an Upward sloping channel with top around 18850 and support at 18240 with a Pivot at 18540
   
3. A word of caution
   
4. Index has made higher highs and lower lows
   
5. A new trend seems to be emerging towards attempt of earlier peaks or even towards posting an ATH.
   
6. As noted in the previous blog, the index has been making alternate bullish and bearish candles for the past 7 weeks. We can expect a positive candle which might see the Index post close to previous high
   
7. Expected to remain in the range of 17370-18840 and any close outside the range requires re-assessment of risk
   
8. A daily close below 18370 would see the Index drift towards 18K
   

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.