Bearish or Bounce Ahead?

Here’s my detailed analysis and outlook for Nifty based on daily and weekly charts:

Daily Chart Insights

Trend:

Nifty is in a clear downtrend with lower highs and lows since breaking 24,000.
Currently consolidating near 23,500, which acts as a critical support zone.
Volume Profile:

High selling volume on down days shows persistent institutional pressure.
Buyers are defending 23,500, but no strong confirmation of reversal yet.
Key Levels:

Resistance:
23,800-23,850: Immediate resistance with heavy Call OI.
24,050: Higher timeframe resistance.


Support:
23,500: Immediate support.
23,400-23,350: Breach could lead to more downside.


Indicators:

RSI: Near oversold (~40), but no bullish divergence.
Moving Averages: Below 50-DMA and 200-DMA, confirming bearish momentum.


Weekly Chart Insights

Trend:

Downtrend continues, with Nifty failing to reclaim critical levels like 24,200.
Last week’s bearish candle shows sellers remain dominant.


Volume Profile:

Increased selling volume on red candles confirms institutional sell-off.
Buyers look weak below 23,500.


Key Levels:

Resistance:
24,000-24,200: Strong supply zone.
24,400: Major resistance for any upside rally.

Support:
23,400-23,350: Breakdown could lead to 23,000.
23,000: Psychological and historical support zone.


Indicators:

RSI: Around 35, nearing oversold territory but with downside room.
MACD: Bearish crossover confirms momentum on the downside.


Prediction for the Month
Bearish Case (High Probability):

Failure to reclaim 23,800 could continue the downtrend.
Breach of 23,500 may lead to:

Target 1: 23,350.
Target 2: 23,000.


Bullish Case (Low Probability):


Breakout above 23,800 could trigger a short-term rally:
Target 1: 24,050.
Target 2: 24,400.


Outlook:
The market remains moderately bearish for the next month unless strong buying emerges at 23,500 or a breakout above 23,800 occurs.

What’s your view? Let’s discuss!

Disclaimer: This is my personal analysis and not financial advice. Please trade responsibly.