NGAS 1:5

Natural gas production (95 Bcf/d, +0.5 Bcf/d compared to the previous week) continues to increase.

LNG exports (12.5 Bcf/d) rose slightly (+0.3 Bcf/d).

Weather conditions (HDD/CDD) reflect neutral demand: moderate heating demand (HDD = 450), weak cooling demand (CDD = 120), without any storm threats. The absence of extreme weather conditions leaves the market without short-term bullish impulses.

The COT report (Managed Money) as of July 1, 2025 (published July 4) is currently the most significant factor. Net-short positions increased by 45k contracts, totaling 220k contracts, substantially exceeding the threshold signal level of 30k contracts. Historically, such an increase in short positions has resulted in falling prices.

Thus, from a fundamental perspective, despite the moderate positivity of inventories and LNG exports, the key factors dominating the market remain increasing production and extremely bearish sentiment in the COT report.

Technical Analysis:

A clear descending wedge and bearish flag are forming. The downside breakout of the 3.38 level, followed by a retest, confirms the bearish structural scenario. Each upward bounce is accompanied by a noticeable increase in selling volume.

Stop loss: 0.9%

Risk/Reward ratio (R:R):
1:5 — very favorable.

I will begin to consider LONG positions only upon a confirmed rebound from the levels 3.22 and 3.05.