Pullback or Break $2.49 in NG? 8/20/2020

NG is still at a crossroads. It's stuck between 2 trend lines.

NG has two paths that it could take at this specific level.

1) More likely - NG pulls back first just in time for the September slump. Mind you, there are several supports below. We got that trend line support, the 400 DMA, the 300 DMA, and the 200 DMA. The lowest that I can see this going down is 1.97. More likely, either 2.08 or 2.24 will be the support that will hold. September is usually a good time to scale in longs. By the time October nears, that's when NG starts ramping up again. $5 will not be out of the question - as long as NG's sentiment is still very bearish.

2) Less likely - NG breaks 2.49 resistance. If that happens, there is not much stopping NG from reaching the mid 2.70s.

Either way, I'll long from support or when resistance breaks.

The lesson from NG bears? You don't short near historic lows. If you do, the math will be against you.