NFLX - A Textbook head and shoulders ready to break

15 Eki 2018

Earnings this week is key of course. If we get another negative quarter, then this will break the head and shoulders neckline and confirm a likely large downward move. Based on distance of head to neckline, the downward move after the break should be roughly 30%, giving a price target of around 230. Not a bad idea to play this more conservatively however. FWIW, there are many fundamental reasons to be short here, just using this to illustrate technical reasons in isolation. I'm short via a put spreads.

15 Eki 2018

Not

Just going to add... I love the NFLX product. But sometimes you need to look at the reality of financials and valuation and there are a lot of issues with Netflix. Also, we are seeing increased competition almost every quarter. More and more companies are trying to get into streaming media (walmart recently) and that will not help Netflix's case. I still think they'll be a solid company on a very long term basis, but think they're wildly overvalued. I see this as similar to Amazon in the late 90's. Good company with good product, but the price is insane and going to come back to earth significantly.

22 Eki 2018

Not

And today this is breaking.