NATGAS Contra

26 Ara 2023

Contrarian scenario where this actually deserves or gets a little bit more of a push above, unless we are in just another correction formation. For the long setup to hold and to be considered, a bounce from a curve needs to happen with a precise candlestick setup right at one of the curves, for example where the green circle is, bouncing from the white curve and continuing on the green path towards the red.

All curves are potential support and resistance formations, projected in time, but the price might just hold on to them in magnet mode creating a wave along one of them. I have been playing around with this concept, with forward testing instead of back-testing, so it will be interesting to see how this project unfolds. (/anyone interested in those experiments can check the tube or X).

If the bullish sentiment does not hold, and the curves are broken below, a shorting opportunity might appear, with a bounce on the flip from any of the curves, example highlighted in the scenario with the purple path.

2 Oca

Not

Blue curve reached and resistance/support concept confirmed, as the price left 2 candlestick shadows at the meeting point, turning into a "melting" point that brought the price lower.

It will be interesting to see if the bullish momentum is maintained, keeping the price above the potential "support" curves below, fading away the scenario with a bounce from them, and just grinding its way towards higher ground.

5 Oca

Not

Retest and rebound from the blue curve.

10 Oca

Not

The was another rebound from the blue curve making it the 3rd. Never got to reach the red, but some long holders (myself included) probably started to cash in. From my perspective, the sentiment has switched to bearish for now.

17 Oca

Not

Some interesting price action at the potential support blue curve. Could be temporary. Candle needs to close in the green an have a decent follow up confirmation candle. Imo this doesn't look like the end of the recent bearish wave.

18 Oca

Not

The rebound from the blue curve was decent but it was retested and failed to hold. Currently the same situation seems to be developing at the encounter with the white curve. This might not hold either. Next stop yellow?

23 Oca

Not

The project would have looked much better if the two highs at the top would have been right at the red curve. Relatively close enough still.

Pit stop at the yellow where it found some support. The extended white one needs to be broken and maybe retested for any bull scenario to gain confidence.

29 Oca

Not

Bearish mood continues and we might need some new curves on a new project for nat gas to figure out the next possible steps.