Technical Analysis for NAS100

Closing Price: 23,716.40 (16th Aug 2025, 2:05 AM UTC+4)

Analysis Methods: Japanese Candlesticks, Harmonic Patterns (ABCD, M/W), Elliott Wave, Wyckoff, Gann Theory (Time/Square of 9/Angles), Ichimoku, RSI, Bollinger Bands, VWAP, Moving Averages (MA/EMA/SMA/WMA).

1. Long-Term Trend (Weekly/Monthly)

Elliott Wave:

• NAS100 is likely in Wave (V) of a multi-year bull cycle (Wave III peak: 24,500 in Jul 2025, Wave IV correction to 22,800).
  *Target: 24,800–25,200 for Wave V completion (1.618 extension of Wave I).

Gann Price Forecasting:

1. Square of 9: √23,716.40 ≈ 154.00 → Key resistance at 155² = 24,025, then 156² = 24,336.
   
2. Major Support: 153² = 23,409 (Gann 45° angle).
   

Ichimoku (Weekly):

1. Tenkan/Kijun: Bullish crossover (Tenkan: 23,200 > Kijun: 22,900).
   
2. Cloud: Price above thick Senkou Span (23,000–23,300) – bullish momentum.
   

Moving Averages:

1. Monthly EMA(50): 22,500 (primary trend support).
   
2. Swing Outlook: Bullish but extended. Final Wave V rally possible to 24,800–25,200.
   

2. Medium-Term Swing (4H/Daily)

Harmonic Patterns:

Bearish ABCD on 4H:

1. A: 23,900 → B: 23,400 → C: 23,800 → D: 23,730–23,750 (1.272 BC extension).
   
2. Bullish Bat (M Pattern) on daily: Potential reversal zone near 23,400 (0.886 XA retracement).
   

Wyckoff Phase:

1. Distribution signs above 23,700:
   
2. Upthrust at 23,780 (15th Aug) on declining volume.
   
3. Lack of demand above 23,750.
   

Gann Theory:

1. Time Window: Aug 19–21 (Square of 9 date cluster) for reversal risk.
   
2. Price-Time Squaring: 23,716 aligns with Aug 16 – watch for consolidation.
   

Indicators:

RSI(14) + Bollinger Bands (Daily):

1. RSI: 67 (neutral-bullish, not overbought).
   
2. Price testing upper BB(20,2) at 23,750 – band expansion suggests volatility.
   
3. VWAP (Daily): 23,600 (swing support).
   

Swing Trade Setup:

1. Short near 23,750 (ABCD target) → Target 23,400. Stop-loss: 23,850.
   
2. Long near 23,400 (Bat + Gann 153² support) → Target 24,000. Stop-loss: 23,300.
   

3. Intraday Outlook (5M–4H)

Key Levels:

1. Resistance: 23,750 (Gann 1x1 angle), 23,800 (psychological).
   
2. Support: 23,650 (VWAP), 23,600 (Kijun Sen), 23,500 (200-EMA).
   

Indicators:

Ichimoku (1H):

1. Tenkan: 23,710, Kijun: 23,680 → Price straddling Kijun (neutral bias).
   
2. Cloud: Thin bullish cloud (23,650–23,670) – intraday support.
   

RSI + Bollinger Bands (1H):

RSI(14): 60 (neutral).

Price pinned to upper BB(20,2) – overextended above 23,730.

VWAP + MAs:

1. VWAP: 23,650 (intraday baseline).
   
2. EMA(20): 23,700 (dynamic resistance).
   

Candlestick Patterns:

1. 4H Shooting Star at 23,780 (15th Aug) → Bearish reversal signal.
   
2. 1H Bearish Engulfing below 23,720 – confirms short-term weakness.
   

Gann Intraday Squaring:

1. Time Cycles: 10:00–12:00 UTC+4 (geometric volatility window).
   *Price Harmony: Breakdown below 23,700 targets 23,650 → 23,600.

Intraday Trade Plan:

1. Sell below 23,700 → Target 23,650 (VWAP) → 23,600 (1H cloud).
   
2. Buy above 23,750 only if RSI <65 → Target 23,800.
   
3. Stop-Loss: 30–40 points risk.
   

Summary of Key Signals

Time Frame Bias Entry Target Stop-Loss
Intraday Bearish <23,700 23,690–23,700 23,600–23,650 23,740
Swing Bullish 23,400–23,450 24,000–24,300 23,300
Swing Bearish 23,750–23,780 23,400–23,500 23,850

Critical Events Ahead:

1. Gann Reversal Window: Aug 19–21 (watch for tech earnings/Fed minutes).
   
2. Daily Close >23,800 invalidates bearish ABCD and targets 24,025.
   

Risk Note: NAS100 is sensitive to interest rate expectations. Tight stops advised in FOMC blackout period.

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