MSFT is a no Brainer CALL

30 Nis

Market Context MSFT

Current Price: $428.50

1-Month Move: +6.2% (from $403.20)

1-Year Move: +28.4% (from $333.80)

Year High/Low: $468.35/$309.45

Technicals:
RSI: ~63.2 (neutral, approaching overbought)

Above 20-day and 50-day MAs, slightly below 200-day MA (short-term strength in a longer uptrend)

Options Data:
IV Rank: 68th percentile (elevated premiums)

Put/Call Ratio: 0.85 (slightly bullish skew)

Max Pain: $415.00

High OI: $420 calls, $400 puts

Historical & Model Insights

Historical Move: MSFT averages ~5.8% post-earnings, with 7/12 quarters showing upside.

IV Crush: Expect 25–35% IV drop post-earnings, so plan exits carefully.

Model Consensus (Grok, Claude, Llama, Gemini, DeepSeek): Moderately Bullish
Why? Strong AI/cloud growth narrative, consistent guidance beats, and call-heavy OI at $420–425. Max Pain at $415 suggests limited downside pull.

Outlier: Gemini flags macro risks and Max Pain gravity, leaning neutral but not bearish.

Trade Setup
Strategy: Single-leg, naked call (bullish, defined risk)

Instrument: MSFT

Direction: Call

Strike: $435.00 (premium $0.75, fits $0.50–$1.00 target band)

Expiry: 2025-05-02 (first weekly post-earnings)

Entry Price: $0.75

Entry Timing: Pre-earnings close (2025-04-30)

Profit Target: $1.50 (~100% gain)

Stop Loss: $0.38 (~50% loss)

Confidence: 70%

Expected Move: ±$24.90 (~5.8%)

BEST AI Signals in the market

1 May

İşlem kapandı: hedefe ulaştı

Another W