MRNA no brainer buy

29 Eyl 2023

Back to MRNA. Big misunderstanding or lack of homework by the market. US market is only 1/3 if sales. Clients are governments worldwide that order guaranteed doses as insurances. Some contracts APA are for 10 years ( even SAAS are not priced on 10 years visibility ). Last but not least. The price for a 1 dosis ( now packaged in a 1 shot syringe) is not anymore 20 usd. But 120 ! Costs of sales this year is high because of production adjustment to the new packaging. But next year back to 70% + growth margin. The rest of the 50 products pipeline is FREE. This is the steal of the year for anyone willing to do the work.

1 Eki 2023

İşlem aktif

Financials summary on the back of the envelope. Market cap net of cash ( 14bil that should generate 500-700 M in 23) is roughly 25bil. Research budget in 23 is 4.5 bil. Sales guidance is 6 to 8 bil ( my feeling is that we will be close to 8bil as demand is high for vaccination worldwide). Cost of sales is 1.5 bil. So result (incl. interest from cash) net of research would be close to 6 bil. Thats like a PER of 4 - 5 ! . What if research doesn 't work? So far they are 6 out of 6 en phase 3. So track record is pretty impressive. Why is that? Because this is a digital platform. Its repetitive and scalable ! It has value and the more they invest in the platform the more competitors will struggle getting into the market. The step will be too high to get in. Biontech and Moderna will own this market.

2 Eki 2023

İşlem aktif

Last thought. If i were a big holding ( nobody in mind !) or any pension fund i d be thinking deeply to use any of those mRNA stocks as a cheap hedge against any coronavirus or any similar virus that could emerge in the future. Not wishing it but nature doesn't care what I wish or not. Covid was not alone. There was MERS, SARS and plenty more that did not hit the public attention. So, there will be others.

7 Kas 2023

Not

So. Following ERs and pipelines updates. My main and quick uptakes. i cannot reconcile Pfizer 's guidance (11.5) with Biontech (4) ! I also find Moderna at 6 a bit surprisingly low. May be both cooking some Q4 ER. So total market size woud be less than 18 bil. I thought Moderna mishandles completly write offs vs Biontech and is spending too much compared to Biontech which managed to reduce its research spending substantially. Biontech is keeping its cash as it is! Moderna says it cannot really reduce its commitment before 26 when it will move "flex" ie depending on sales. In the meantime they will burn their cash as it is explained. Now Moderna is trying to be as transparent as possible notably on guidance 24 with a very low 1 bil for international markets which i believe is highly unprobable (or illogical?) versus the 2bil for the US. To conclude. Moderna is a great company but spending too much money vs its short term potential sales. Biontech surprised me by the quality of its management (write offs better handled, research spending cut meaningfully, keeping cash, even ER presentation a better product). Biontech will benefit fully from the narrative around cancer treatments. So stock might at the end perform better than Moderna that has not a lot in the short term. Moderna needs to find another gear in its playbook even if already impressive.