Nasdaq abajo, bonos arriba…
The Nasdaq may face bearish pressure this week, driven by its inverse correlation with 10-year Treasury yields, which have been climbing. Additionally, a packed economic calendar may bring significant volatility:
1. Monday, Dec 16:
• Empire State Manufacturing Index & Flash Manufacturing/Services PMI: Indicators reflecting the health of the economy. Strong data may reinforce expectations of prolonged high rates, pressuring the Nasdaq.
2. Tuesday, Dec 17:
• Core Retail Sales & Retail Sales: Key indicators of consumer spending. Higher-than-expected results could support the Fed’s hawkish stance, increasing fears of higher interest rates.
3. Wednesday, Dec 18:
• FOMC (Rate Decision, Projections, and Press Conference): The most critical event of the week. Any signals of prolonged high rates may create pressure on risk assets like the Nasdaq.
4. Thursday, Dec 19:
• Final GDP & Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Confirmations of economic growth and manufacturing activity. Strong numbers may fuel further concerns about ongoing monetary tightening.
5. Friday, Dec 20:
• Core PCE Index: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. An upside surprise could strengthen expectations for higher rates, negatively affecting the Nasdaq.
From a technical perspective, the Nasdaq is high, while 10-year Treasury yields are rising. This combination supports the likelihood of a bearish correction this week.
1. Monday, Dec 16:
• Empire State Manufacturing Index & Flash Manufacturing/Services PMI: Indicators reflecting the health of the economy. Strong data may reinforce expectations of prolonged high rates, pressuring the Nasdaq.
2. Tuesday, Dec 17:
• Core Retail Sales & Retail Sales: Key indicators of consumer spending. Higher-than-expected results could support the Fed’s hawkish stance, increasing fears of higher interest rates.
3. Wednesday, Dec 18:
• FOMC (Rate Decision, Projections, and Press Conference): The most critical event of the week. Any signals of prolonged high rates may create pressure on risk assets like the Nasdaq.
4. Thursday, Dec 19:
• Final GDP & Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Confirmations of economic growth and manufacturing activity. Strong numbers may fuel further concerns about ongoing monetary tightening.
5. Friday, Dec 20:
• Core PCE Index: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. An upside surprise could strengthen expectations for higher rates, negatively affecting the Nasdaq.
From a technical perspective, the Nasdaq is high, while 10-year Treasury yields are rising. This combination supports the likelihood of a bearish correction this week.
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