2025-02-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaq

Good Evening and I hope you are well.

comment: As expected after yesterday’s cpi reversal, bears are not strong enough and bulls wanted a higher high badly. Now a new ath is much more likely than prices below 21800. Max bullishness would be if we stay above 22k but everything above 21900 is ok for the bulls. We have a decent channel on the 1h tf but it’s not steep enough to get to 21400 tomorrow. So it’s probably best to pay more attention to the lower trend line and not looking to short the upper one.

current market cycle: trading range

key levels: 21800 - 22500

bull case: Bulls now only need to keep it above 21900 and bears can’t hold shorts on this. We could easily print 22500 or higher tomorrow. Today we had wild swings on smaller time-frames so I doubt many bulls would want to buy the highs but we should know an hour into the Globex session if we can expect sideways to down first or if bulls just keep it above 22k in fear of not getting enough points to the upside. Odds are good for a max long day tomorrow.

Invalidation is below 21900.

bear case: Bears can scalp short on new highs but the risk of getting trapped if we break above was never higher this week. If they somehow manage to get below 21900 again, the bull case would be in trouble but for now we are making clear higher highs and higher lows. Could bears stay below 22100 tomorrow and break sideways out of the channel? Yeah but we closed at 22094. If Globex sells-off hard, might happen but I doubt it. Bears do not have much here.

Invalidation is above 22150.

short term: Clear plan. Stay above 21900 and long for 22400+. Dip below and see if bears can generate follow-through. Leaning heavily bullish though.

medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-09: Another lower high but also higher lows. Bears are not doing enough, so we are in a trading range below the ath. We are close to it that there is always the possibility of printing a higher high again. Bears need lower lows below 20600 before we can talk about 20000 again.

trade of the day: Strong selling on the open but by now everyone knows bears are only getting trapped this week, so buying around 21750 was where market found support late yesterday and we dipped only 6 points below the low from yesterday evening. Market refused to go down after the early EU session selling was done, so long it was. The pullback from 22000 down to 21890 was deep and holding longs through it was tough but if you look at the 1h chart at the end of the day, it was much more bullish than lower time-frames suggested.